Sofia Kenin vs Katie Boulter Prediction: Underdog Kenin Takes on In-Form Boulter for a Spot in the Tokyo Final

For a place in the semifinals of the WTA 500 tournament in Tokyo on October 26, 2024, world No. 155 Sofia Kenin will have an intriguing encounter against world No. 33 Katie Boulter. Kenin and Boulter have advanced into the semifinals each after straight-set victories. Kenin defeated sixth-seed Daria Kasatkina, while Boulter beat former U.S. Open champion Bianca Andreescu. This Tokyo event has been one of revival for Kenin, and her brilliant display here has revitalized this season. Meanwhile, British No. 1 Boulter had been methodically working her way through the ranks this year and continues to build on a consistent form. In many ways, this is a contrast of styles and momentum, setting up what should be a thrilling contest while both women look to cut their spot into the final round.

Kenin and Boulter are two players who have taken very different journeys over the last several months. Since her 2020 Australian Open final, Kenin has laboured through injuries and inconsistency that dropped her outside of the Top 150. But based on her form in Tokyo, she may well be rounding a corner as she routed Kasatkina in their quarterfinal. Most of Kenin's game is now razor-sharp once more, particularly her forehand and shot selection.

Presumably, Kenin's game plan would be to dominate the points with her forehand, interspersing it with well-placed drop shots and approaches to the net to get her opponent out of rhythm. Kenin does a great job of reading her opponent's game and finding weaknesses; she'll be looking to employ her defensive skills to neutralize Boulter's aggressive baseline game. Again here, Kenin's footwork and redirecting of power will be crucial, because Boulter is so much more dominant when she has a stationary target. If Kenin can extend the rallies and continue to go to Boulter's backhand, she should be able to force the error and take hold of the match tempo. Deep returns repeatedly to push Boulter back, then looking for opportunities to finish the points from inside the baseline, that is how Kenin will try to operate.

While Boulter has been having one of the best seasons of her career and has consolidated her position in the top 40 with wins over top-10 players in recent weeks, her growing confidence in her ultra-aggressive game has made Boulter tough to contend with. The big striking from the baseline, boundless energy, and strategic maturity, as seen in her win over tricky Bianca Andreescu, have allowed her to hold on with poise. In this semifinal match, audiences can witness a perfect cocktail of aggression, finesse, and tactics between the two players.

Boulter will look toward her aggressive baseline game, which has served her well of late in tournaments. She will go into battle armed with powerful serves and forehands, trying to make Kenin backpedal a lot with deep, flat shots. Boulter will try to take control of the rallies early so that Kenin does not get the opportunity to settle into a rhythm. Given Kenin's susceptibility to change of pace, Boulter will most probably try and throw in some slices and off-pace shots to push Kenin out of position. Holding a high percentage of first serves will be key for Boulter considering that her second serve can be quite exploitative against Kenin's sharp returns. The drop shot would be one such tool that could really pay dividends for Boulter in testing Kenin's anticipation skills and prodding at Kenin's fitness and lateral movement.

This should be a very closely fought encounter between Kenin and Boulter, with both players coming into the match with their strengths and different motivations. Kenin's rise back to competitive form this week in Tokyo has been nothing short of remarkable, with her win over Kasatkina showing she has the ability to overcome strong players with some precise, thoughtful play. Kenin's defensive game, court coverage, and the ability to mix up shots will be crucial in destabilizing Boulter's powerful and direct game. If Kenin can maintain her level and consistency as she has been playing so far, then she has a good shot at containing Boulter's aggression.

Meanwhile, Boulter has been a model of consistency all through this season and her power game has considerably improved. The recent win against Andreescu showed that she had mental toughness and how to keep her game plan going even against highly rated players. For this match, her serve and forehand are likely to prove pivotal for Boulter as she tries to cut down the rallies short, keeping Kenin constantly on the back foot. However, the second serve from Boulter remains a possible weakness that Kenin could try to take advantage of-particularly if she can return deep and test Boulter's positioning.

With both in decent form and the level of the match, this may simply boil down to a fight of nerves and change of game plan; Kenin's pace-eating game would allow her to counter-attack, something she does pretty well, while Boulter's strong season so far and her offensive firepower would certainly indicate she is capable of pushing Kenin all the way.

• Katie Boulter (-2) Games Handicap @ 1.6 Odds
• Exact Sets 3 @ 2.44 Odds
• Katie Boulter Wins 2-1 @ 3.75 Odds