Qinwen Zheng vs Leylah Fernandez Prediction: Can Zheng continue her remarkable run, or will Fernandez's resilience tip the scales?

The quarterfinal match in Tokyo pits two young stars against each other in the form of World No. 7 Qinwen Zheng and World No. 35 Leylah Fernandez. The red-hot Chinese sensation, Qinwen Zheng, enters this match after an imperious display against Moyuka Uchijima in her last outing. Coming into this match, Fernandez is gaining momentum after scoring an emphatic three-set victory over Varvara Gracheva. While both players have their own strengths coming into the court, Zheng's powerful baseline game versus Fernandez's agility and counter-punching style will provide an exhilarating match. It is from their past encounters that Fernandez leads by a slight advantage, setting up an interesting match on October 25, 2024.

Zheng and Fernandez have faced each other three times, with Fernandez leading the head-to-head 2-1. It was Zheng, though, who came out on top in the most recent of those meetings between the players in the Round of 16 here at the 2024 WTA Wuhan Open in a thrilling three-set encounter. That win will do much for Zheng's confidence, but based on past successes that Fernandez has enjoyed in their head-to-heads, this quarterfinal between the two players is well-balanced.

Qinwen Zheng comes into the quarterfinals in great form, having taken eight of her last ten matches. But the manner of her win over Uchijima-her superior shot-making, combined with the mental resilience that saw her coast through in straight sets, losing a mere five games throughout-shows that Zheng is certainly on song. There, her big serve and aggressive baseline play helped her control much of the rallies and take advantage of many break chances. The current run has propelled her into the top 10, and she looks determined to go further in Tokyo.

Qinwen Zheng will most likely focus on her aggressive baseline play to try and take the benefit of her powerful serve by dominating most of the points early. The first serve has been a huge key to Zheng's success, and she will aim to keep the percentage of first serves inside high and win over 80% of points behind it, just like against Uchijima. From the back of the court, Zheng prefers to engage in heavy-hitting rallies, pushing her opponents behind her. Capable of converting break points efficiently-five in her last match-Zheng will again look to exploit any weakness in the second serve of Fernandez.

Leylah Fernandez has had a slightly unpredictable season and is 5-5 in her last ten matches. Fernandez has been inconsistent this year, but her fighting spirit was seen in the last match when she came from behind to beat Gracheva in three sets. Fernandez relies on her quick feet, doggedness, and the ability to push back power that has unsettled several big guns in the past. While she has not been as consistent as Zheng, she can never be ruled out in big-time matches.

Whereas Fernandez will look to neutralize Zheng's power with her better movement and defense-known for her speed and court coverage, she'll try to defuse Zheng's aggression by absorbing the pace and turning defense into offense. The capability of getting balls back into play and mixing in crafty shots, like drop shots and angles, will disrupt Zheng's rhythm. Furthermore, the high percentage of second serve wins by Fernandez will be very important: 64% against Gracheva. She will want to avoid punishment via Zheng's return game.

The edge in form goes to Zheng, considering she has taken eight of the last ten matches against five for Fernandez. A big server who is capable of dominating the rallies from the baseline, she will be a great task at hard courts where her game style flourishes. Considering Zheng's consistency with both first and second serves, together with her ability to save break points so far, she doesn't look easily broken down. Added together, it would strongly suggest Zheng will be hard to break down, given the consistency of her first and second serves, not to mention saving 75% of her break points in her last match.

Fernandez comes into the match with a contrasting style. Inconstant form aside, she has the tools to really disrupt Zheng's power with her defense and quick transitions. Fernandez's ability to perform under pressure-she saved 80% of break points against Gracheva-will be key if she hopes to grind Zheng down in long rallies. Previous victories against Zheng give the world No. 24 a psychological edge, and her experience in high-octane situations-especially her appearance in the 2021 US Open final-may come into play.

In a word, Zheng's better current level and strong game, added to the fact that she defeated Fernandez recently, make her the favorite. On the other hand, it would be a wishful thinking to ignore the battling qualities and the way Fernandez can neutralize the power of her opponents.

• Qinwen Zheng Wins & Over 19.5 Games @ 2.06 Odds
• Over 20.5 Games @ 1.83 Odds
• Qinwen Zheng Wins 2-1 @ 3.75 Odds