Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction: Will Daniil break his losing streak against Novak?

In the second semifinal of the Dubai tournament, world number one Novak Djokovic will face Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked seventh in the ATP rankings. The two men had already played each other in Adelaide in 2023, with the Serb winning that head-to-head encounter. Logically, the Balkan is regarded by bookmakers as the favorite.

After the Australian Open, at which Djokovic triumphed for the tenth time, Novak took a month's break before appearing at a tournament in Dubai. He played three matches, losing a set to Czech Machac, then going 2-0 against Griekspoor and Hurkacz. The match against the Pole lasted one hour and 23 minutes, 6-3, 7-5 in favor of the Serb.

As we suspected, Medvedev had no problem overcoming Coric in the quarterfinals of the Dubai tournament. The Croatian was beaten in an hour and 22 minutes; the match score was 6-3, 6-2. The Russian made slightly more mistakes against the Croatian than Djokovic against Hurkacz, which could be the deciding factor in this clash. We note that if Medvedev beats Djokovic and Rublev loses to Zverev in the first semifinal, Daniil will overtake Andrey in the rankings and regain his status as the top-ranked player in the country.

Novak and Daniil have played each other 13 times, 9-4 in favor of the Balkan. In 2022, Djokovic won both matches, although only one match in Turin was formally completed; the match in Astana was not completed. In 2023, Djokovic beat Daniil in Adelaide 6-3, 6-4 in one hour and 24 minutes.

Medvedev has improved markedly since he last played against Novak in early January, winning two tournaments in Rotterdam and Doha. Djokovic has not played at an official level since Melbourne and started the tournament in Dubai with a very tough win over Machas, but has improved slightly since then. Medvedev has maximum motivation for the upcoming meeting. Firstly, Daniil has not beaten Novak since September 2021 for four games in a row. Secondly, Medvedev is desperate to restore his status as the top-ranked player in the country and must do better than Rublev to secure the title. We expect a small sensation in this pairing and stake on the more motivated Medvedev, who is, if not at his peak, then in very good form.

• W2 for 2.75;
• Handicap 2 (3.5) for 1.66;
• Correct score 1:2 for 5.00.

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