Nicolas Jarry vs Holger Rune Prediction: Jarry's Power vs Rune's Agility in a Battle for Basel Supremacy

An exciting match in the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 Basel sees Chilean star Nicolas Jarry, presently ranked No. 34, face off against the emerging talent from Denmark, Holger Rune, currently seeded No. 14 in the world. Coming into the match, there is a difference in recent form and physical condition for both competitors, setting up a very interesting contest. The respective strengths of this encounter will be the testy serve-and-volley game of Jarry pitted against the all-court game of Rune in an exciting clash of power and precision. Both players have struggled recently but are seeking a chance to rediscover form and make their statements in Basel.

Nicolas Jarry has had a bad run in the past ten matches as he has won only two and lost eight, including to Miomir Kecmanovic in the Round of 16 in Stockholm in a truly hard-fought match. Jarry was known for his explosive serves and aggressive playing style; however, inconsistency and poor conversion rates on crucial points have marred his performances of late.

The standout feature of Jarry's game is his serve, and there have been times this year when he has been a complete nightmare to face in service games. He slammed down 14 aces in his last match against Kecmanovic, winning 76% of first-serve points. Much will depend on his ability to hit through the court with powerful groundstrokes, something that should be helped by Basel's indoor surface, which is relatively fast. That means Jarry will have to work at keeping his first-serve percentage high and to improve his second serve, off which he could win just 40% of the points in his last match. If he can avoid long baseline rallies with Rune, he will prefer to try to win more by being aggressive, moving into the net to cut the points short.

A form of 2W, 8L in his last 10 matches for Jarry points to a player struggling for confidence. Serving statistics seem to remain healthy, but he has looked vulnerable throughout longer rallies and on return games, converting just 2 break points against Kecmanovic.

Holger Rune has been more even in the last 10 games that he played, winning and losing five each. Still, his two-game losing streak, which includes one-sided defeat against Carlos Alcaraz in the Six Kings Slam quarterfinals, speaks to Rune probably not being as sharp as he could be. In his game, Rune heavily relies on his great movement, reliable backhand and changes of pace. He will want to bring those qualities to the fore if he is to prevent the heavy serve and aggressive play of Jarry from dictating the match.

Rune is the more well-rounded player of the two, with great mobility and decent defense. However, his second-serve stats in the loss to Alcaraz-only winning 32% of second-serve points-offer something Jarry can target. For this reason, Rune will have to raise his level on return game to nullify Jarry's heavy serve, considering he failed to convert any of the break points against Alcaraz. Rune could look to prolong the rallies and look to frustrate Jarry into errors. His backhand was one of his most potent weapons, and he could use it to boss the baseline exchanges, pinning Jarry back and nullifying his aggression.

Rune is the more consistent of the two over the last couple of months, though he has just lost his last two matches. Still, he too has shown his vulnerabilities, mainly in the return game. He failed to win a point on first-serve returns against Alcaraz.

With Rune not exactly in scintillating form of late and the Dane in more consistent form, he has the added advantages of better movement and tactical versatility to give him the nod over Jarry here. If Rune can work his way into neutralizing Jarry's serve, he really should look to impose himself from the baseline.

With both players inconsistent of late, and considering Jarry serves well on fast courts, this is expected to be a close affair that could easily go three ways. A good Jarry serve might win him a set, but overall quality should see Rune through.

In this match, especially on an indoor hard court, Jarry's strong serve will be the most important determining factor. If he eventually loses this match, the Chilean is likely to fire down more than 10 aces.

• Holger Rune (-3) Games Handicap @ 1.6 Odds
• Over 2.5 Sets @ 2.64 Odds
• Holger Rune Wins 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds