Mirra Andreeva vs Qinwen Zheng Prediction: Expect a competitive match

Mirra Andreeva squares off against Qinwen Zheng in the quarterfinals of the WTA Beijing tournament on 4th October 2024. Ranked 22 in the world, Andreeva is a face for the new generation of tennis stars as she rose through the ranks in rapid time. Conversely, China's Zheng is ranked 7th in the world, a powerhouse, and the home-court favorite who will be brimming with confidence after a strong season. Their meeting promises youthful energy taking on experience in a crucial stage of this tournament.

Known for her consistency at the baseline and natural movement around the court, Andreeva likes nothing more than extended rallies in a way that can methodically extract mistakes from an opponent with her defensive prowess. She's able to redirect pace and elicit the errors consistently of late. Her serve can get pretty vulnerable; just 1 ace versus 3 double faults against Magda Linette in her last match. This means that Andreeva will need to offset Zheng's power by maintaining high percentages of first serves, like 82% in her previous match, and breaking her opponent's rhythm.

Coming into this match, Andreeva has built up good momentum, having won four straight sets and playing steadily from the baseline. Converting break points will be important, as will hanging tough under pressure-she converted seven in her last match. However, there are areas for improvement with her second serve and return games, where she struggled to win 0% of second serve return points.

There's Zheng: an aggressive all-court player who does have one very formidable serve, foremost. That much was evident in her three-set victory over Amanda Anisimova, where she hit 14 aces and barely showed any weaknesses in her service games. Zheng has a weapon of a forehand, and her success rate on first-serve points was 73%. The second serve might, however, still be a bit of an Achilles heel-this time she won 45% of her points off that serve-and Andreeva may find some chances to step inside the baseline on returns. Zheng will also have to keep Andreeva from counterpunching her and avoid getting into those very long rallies, which she knows the Russian will end up winning.

Zheng has been in great form with an 8-2 record in her last ten matches. Home advantage would additionally play well into her confidence. Indeed, the second set against Anisimova was tough, but the fighting spirit was palpable, coming back strong in the decider. Her serve, more so her first serve, has been her biggest strength, and she will look for more of that dominance. The most crucial factor about Zheng is that she can finish the points very quickly, which will be able to reduce Andreeva's strong defensive capabilities.

With more experience, home advantage, and a power serve, the advantage of this match goes to Zheng. Andreeva could be the rising star, but Zheng's aggressive style and ability to get the better of the service games will prove to be the deciding factors. Andreeva may be challenged in returning Zheng's serve, especially those second-serve points that have lots of rooms for improvement by Zheng herself.

It was a three-set battle for Zheng in her last outing, and Andreeva usually forces opponents deep into the sets. This thus might just be the competitive matchup that goes over the threshold for the total number of games.

The ability of Andreeva to extend rallies and thus frustrate opponents should be good enough for her to take a set. Zheng's aggressive game and home support should enable her to regroup and close out the match in three sets.

• Over 20.5 Games @ 1.62 Odds
• Qinwen Zheng Win @ 1.63 Odds
• Zheng Win 2-1 @ 4.00 Odds