Lucas Pouille vs Alexander Zverev Prediction: Will Zverev’s dominance trump Pouille?

The Australian Open 2025 gets off on an electric note, as the German Alexander Zverev will play in the most-waited first round of the tournament against French talent Lucas Pouille. Coming into the tournament with great momentum, World No. 2 Zverev faces a player looking to regain the form he showed during his run to the 2019 semifinals. With contrast in style and ambition, this will be one great fight on Melbourne's hard courts.

Can Zverev continue his dominant run of form and make a strong start to his Grand Slam campaign? Or can the resilience of Pouille create an early Round of 128 upset? Let's get into the player previews, head-to-head history, and analysis for this intriguing Round of 128 clash.

Lucas Pouille, ranked 104 in the ATP rankings, is quite no stranger to big stages. Considered once the emerging star from the French Army, Pouille enjoyed his best in 2019 at the Aussie Open semifinal; he lost in five sets against the then numero uno Novak Djokovic. But injuries and inconsistent play brought him down the ranking spiral a few rungs.

Pouille's game is all about solid baseline, clever shot selection, and a reliable first serve. All these are reflected in the efficiency of his career stats, with 56% of first-serve accuracy and winning 73% of first-serve points. However, his problem is converting any opportunities that come his way, which indicates a 39% break point conversion rate. Against the top quality of Zverev, Pouille will have to lift his game, especially in return games where the 27% he made on first-serve returns probably will not be enough.

Having been through a rough patch, Pouille hopes to draw on the same grit that served him so well in Melbourne six years ago. Can he do it all over again?

World No. 2 Alexander Zverev goes into the 2025 season in scintillating form. With 23 career titles and two semifinal appearances at the Australian Open-2020 and 2024-the German powerhouse is among the favorites to lift the trophy this year.

The hard courts always support Zverev's numbers: 67% first-serve in, winning 75% of the first-serve points, and most impressively, the 41% break point conversion rate. An attacking baseliner backed by his booming serve and remarkable defensive skills has everything right to make any of his opponents miserable.

Coming into this match, Zverev is full of confidence with a 2-0 lead in 2025 thus far. His only previous meeting with Pouille also went smoothly in his favor, giving him even more psychological advantage over his opponent. This is not just about getting through to the next round for Zverev; it is about sending a statement to the other competitors.

This is a matchup between Zverev's aggressive all-court game and Pouille's crafty baseline style.

Zverev's strengths: His first serve and realization of break point opportunities could be a lot for Pouille to handle, considering he struggles in return games. Physically and enduringly, Zverev always presents a challenge in the best-of-five-match format.

Pouille's Challenges: The case can be drawn from his vast experience at the Australian Open, but he does look a little vulnerable given the lack of match fitness and some rather average stats on return points. He will have to somehow try and get in the way of Zverev's rhythm, extending the German with his serve.

Key Factor: How much Zverev can dominate early in the rally will be the deciding factor. Pouille needs to find a way to make the rallies long, drawing the errors out of the German.

• Under 32 Games @ 1.61 Odds
• Zverev to Win in Straight Sets @ 1.46 Odds
• Total Sets 3 @ 1.45 Odds