Lorenzo Sonego vs Casper Ruud Prediction: A Clash of Form and Styles; Can Sonego Overcome a Struggling Ruud?

The 2024 ATP Stockholm Open brings a fascinating Round of 16 encounter between Lorenzo Sonego and Casper Ruud. The two players come into this match from different trajectories—Sonego is riding a decent wave of form, winning 6 of his last 10 matches, while Ruud is facing a significant dip, having lost 6 of his last 10 and currently enduring a three-match losing streak. Ranked 50th and 8th respectively, this match is crucial for both as they look to regain momentum heading into the latter part of the season.

Lorenzo Sonego, the Italian powerhouse, enters the Stockholm Open with a hard-fought 2-0 victory over Marc-Andrea Huesler, exhibiting excellent serving stats, including an impressive 96% second serve win percentage. His current form is solid, with 6 wins in his last 10 matches, and he thrives on aggressive baseline play combined with solid net approaches.

Sonego's serve is his primary weapon, especially on indoor hard courts where the conditions favor big servers. The ability to win points behind his first serve-83%-and his second serve-74%-makes him ahead in holding his service games. Tactically, Sonego will look to dictate play with his forehand and seek opportunities to come to the net when he can take advantage of Ruud's recent struggles to return effectively. His aggressive manner can push Ruud into defensive positions, especially on the second serve.

However, Sonego’s key challenge will be converting break points, as his success rate in this area has been inconsistent (1/1 break points converted in his last match). He must remain composed during crucial points to maximize any opportunities Ruud may give him.

Casper Ruud currently finds it difficult to show top form, being ranked 8th in the world. In Shanghai, he lost to Aleksandar Vukic in two sets, 6-4, 6-4, showing some weaknesses, especially in his return game, as he secured only 15% of points won on his opponent's first serve. The game is an important test for Ruud, who tries to get out of a not-very-good streak for the last months.

There has been inconsistency lately between his serve game and return game in his downturn. However, Ruud is among the best when it comes to constructing points with heavy topspin hitting from the back of the court, particularly off the forehand side. His service percentages remain strong (73 percent first serve in), but his inability to defend break chances is alarming (0 percent saved in his last match). Ruud needs to be sharper on return games, especially as Sonego's serving will provide limited opportunities.

Ruud should also look to open Sonego up and capitalize on his poor movement by using consistent rallying to drag the Italian wide, forcing errors. If Ruud could see out Sonego's early, exploding moments of power to grind out longer rallies, he may edge the Italian in endurance and consistency.

Ruud is now three matches without a win, and it is going from worst to worse, especially as he moves from the slow clay courts where he thrived to quicker indoor hard courts. One of his recent losses in the first round against Vukic (ranked 56th) came completely at his expense, against the Serbian youngster, in straight sets. Ruud's first-serve percentage remains high at 73%, but he can't convert on key points, and its defensive vulnerabilities have cost him matches.

With a solid win in his last match and serving with confidence, Sonego could give Ruud significant trouble if he can continue serving at a high percentage and remains aggressive. The baseline-heavy game of Ruud could be a recipe for disaster on this much faster surface, allowing Sonego the chance to take control of points and create an opportunity for an upset.

• Over 22.5 Games @ 1.74 Odds
• Exact Set 3 @ 2.18 Odds
• Casper Ruud Win 2-1 @ 3.60 Odds