Jiri Lehecka vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction: Clash of Power and Precision on the Path to the Finals

The Belgrade Open semi-final between Jiri Lehecka and Denis Shapovalov has a good chance of being an exciting affair since two quite contrasting styles of play come together. Both players are deep in the top 100: 22-year-old Lehecka is currently at ATP #34 on the back of a name he has made with a strong baseline game and a knack for changing tack; meanwhile, 25-year-old Canadian Shapovalov uses flair and power to devastating effect when he hits form, currently sitting at ATP #78. The stakes are high, as both players want the much-needed ATP title boost in 2024.

Both players will come into this semifinal with their positives. Lehecka has been rising steadily this year, claiming an ATP title in Adelaide and putting up decent performances at most events​​. Shapovalov had a pretty tough year with ups and downs in ranking, but he seems to have found his winning rhythm in Belgrade, securing five straight match wins and looking more focused. He had also beaten Shapovalov in straight sets in their previous meeting at the 2022 Rotterdam ATP 500, giving him somewhat of a psychological advantage coming into this matchup.

Jiri Lehecka: Lehecka's game is built around a big serve and disciplined baseline rallies. Against Lukas Klein in the last match, he served 11 aces while serving first with 66% and then going on to win 75% of his first-serve points. Reaching 2 break points in 5 in that same last match, and an astoundingly high percentage of winning on second service, at 94%, are further indications of his good all-around game that is hard to break.

Denis Shapovalov: Normally an aggressive player, in his quarterfinal against Christopher O'Connell, he won an impressive 91% of his first-serve points while hitting 12 aces. His recent success bears testimony to the confidence he exudes with a win. Coming big on first-serve points, Shapovalov won 74%, while second-serve return points went for 55%. In return, the game has been quite huge for Shapovalov, especially because, in his last match, he saved 100% of his break points, showing grit under pressure​.

This match comes down to whether Lehecka's steadiness can stay with Shapovalov's dynamic high-risk style. Lehecka's dependable serve and rigid baseline defense might neutralize Shapovalov's voracious groundstrokes. But, if Shapovalov's serve is on track and he keeps the unforced error numbers low, his energetic play, worthy of a finish, may outrun Lehecka's more methodical one.

All this means that Lehecka's consistent form and success in clutch moments-he saved 50% of break points and converted crucial ones-give him a boost. Shapovalov's high-risk style will probably cause him to make some costly errors if he is pressed into extended rallies.

Shapovalov's serving and attacking game might well win him a set, but the superior consistency of Lehecka in long games and his mental stamina decided for him in this tight three-setter.

Both players are talented at holding serve, and Shapovalov comes in great form, so both should be able to make the other work to win their games-long games and a high total count.

• Over 22.5 Games @ 1.64 Odds
• Exact Sets 3 @ 2.10 Odds
• Jiri Lehecka Wins @ 2.30 Odds