Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction: Pegula out of momentum, Saba needs a win

The WTA Finals are on and what a brilliant slate of games we have seen, a bunch of games have gone to the final set and there have been a lot of tiebreakers already. The action is only going to heat up as we inch closer to the last few games. In this game, Jessica Pegula will take on Aryna Sabalenka to conclude their Group Stage fixtures.

Pegula comes into this game after losing to Ons Jabeur 6-1, 3-6, 3-6. After a strong start, Pegula was overwhelmed by Jabeur’s aggressive game in the game as she fell back in the second set and lost all momentum. Her first serve became less effective as the game went on and a 58% first serve didn’t do the business. She was also outplayed in terms of receiving points after she had denied Ons any breaks of serve but that changed later. Ons had a 41-35 receiving points and a 47-44 service points advantage. Pegula has now been knocked out of the next stage anyway but will look to end with a win.

Sabalenka comes into this game after suffering a 2-6, 4-6 loss against Maria Sakkari. She was completely outplayed in the first set and after making it 3-3 in the second set, she was overwhelmed by Sakkari’s focus. Sabalenka once again kept her double-faults down than she does usual but in the end, she committed more unforced errors than Maria. She was behind 23-30 in receiving points and 27-38 in terms of service points in what was an underwhelming finish for her. Sabalenka has won one out of her two games and although she remains in contention for the Semis, her chances have taken a hit.

Saba and Jessica have met four times and Aryna has won three out of four games. They last met during Rome Masters where Aryna won comfortably.

Sabalenka has more stakes in this game than Pegula and if she wins and Jabeur loses, she has a clear-cut path to the Semis. She has played well, displayed more focus, and has become better at keeping her faults down. However, she will need to be her aggressive self and avoid engaging in long rallies as that is not her forte at all. Pegula is a power-player but she has not closed out games lately and that has put a dent in her campaign. I believe Aryna will nab a win here and remain in play for the Semis. This will probably be over in two sets.