Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction: Alcaraz is consistent

One of the most thrilling matches between young guns is Jannik Sinner's face-off with his fellow young gun, Carlos Alcaraz, in the ATP Beijing Final 2024. Currently No. 1 in the world, Sinner comes into this final having won 10 in a row, but for his part, No. 3-ranked Alcaraz has also been on fire, going 9-1 over his last 10. Both players have played an extremely high level of tennis to this point in the season and have seen plenty of one another, with Alcaraz taking their head-to-head 6-4, including a five-set win in the semifinal at the French Open a couple of weeks ago.

Given that Sinner and Alcaraz are both known for their explosive playing styles, heavy baseline rallies, and athletic talent, this final should be just that-intense.

Jannik Sinner enters this match with an immaculate record in Beijing, having defeated Yunchaokete Bu in the semifinals in straight sets 6-3, 7-6. On top of this, he posted very impressive serving statistics with 11 aces and zero double faults, which is an indicator that he is peaking at the right time with his serve. The saving of 100% break points also points to his mental fortitude under pressure, which shall be important against the relentless player that Alcaraz is.

Sinner's first serve will be the key to the points. With a high percentage on first serves recently, that will need to be as high to prevent Alcaraz from attacking on returns.

Sinner's heavy groundstroke, particularly off his backhand side, could force Alcaraz to go side to side and pressure him-exposing his desire to be aggressive and thereby leaving space open.

Sinner's good defensive game will come up against the relentless pace and depth that Alcaraz will bring. The Italian will be dependent on how well he can absorb pace and turn defense into offense.

On the other side, Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev in the semis in straight sets, 5-7, 3-6, which was quite incomprehensible as far as how he pulled that off with his shot-making and court coverage. Having a low ace count, 3 aces, he is one of the best returners in the world. This was apparent in his return points won, going 45% on first serve and 50% on second serve. More to this, the ability of Alcaraz to convert 5 break points against Medvedev, who himself is not some scrub at tactics, is definitely worth mentioning.

It will be very fundamental that Alcaraz has an excellent return game. He blends in the aggressive returns with deeper placements in an effort to break Sinner's rhythm, making him have to play off balance.

Alcaraz's drop shots, along with his fast transitions to offense when he is on the back foot, might disrupt Sinner's baseline-oriented style. It will be important to keep Sinner guessing with his variety.

Considering how long their matches have been in the past, better fitness by Alcaraz could be a factor, especially if they go into a third set or long rallies very often.

The key to this match is how effectively both players can implement their strengths while nullifying each other's power. Much will depend on the serving from Sinner, and if he can continue to deliver aces with a high percentage of first serves, he can take away the devastating return game of Alcaraz. However, Alcaraz has time and again proved that he can break the best servers in the world, and his ability to win points from difficult positions will test Sinner's consistency.

Alcaraz has the psychological advantage because he leads 6-4 in their head-to-head encounters, including a win in that grueling last meeting in the French Open. This being a best-of-three, even on a quick hard court, Sinner has an even better chance to narrow that gap. Going into this contest, both players have some decent streaks going for them: Sinner has won 16 games in a row while Alcaraz has won 15 sets in succession, but Alcaraz's movement and tactical flexibility give him an edge over his opponent.

• Total Over 22.5 Games @ 1.8 Odds
• Carlos Alcaraz Win @ 1.75 Odds
• First Set Winner Jannik Sinner @ 2.00 Odds