Holger Rune vs Casper Ruud Prediction: Ruud will beat Rune for the fifth time

In the Rome Masters semi-finals, world number seven Holger Rune will face ATP number four Casper Ruud. The two men have played each other four times, and all the head-to-head encounters have been won by the Norwegian, who is listed as a notable underdog in the pairing.

After beating Fils, Fognini and Popyrin, Rune defeated Novak Djokovic, still formally the world number one and winner of last year's Masters in Rome. The match against the Serb lasted two hours and 17 minutes, with Rune winning 6-2, 4-6, 6-2. Note that if Holger Rune wins the upcoming match, he will move up to sixth place in the ATP rankings, ahead of Andrey Rublev.

After failing in Madrid, Casper Ruud has a very good Masters in Rome. In the Italian capital, the Norwegian was stronger than Frenchman Rinderknech, Kazakhstan's Bublik, Serbia's Dere and Argentina's Cerundolo. The match against Cerundolo lasted two hours and six minutes and the Norwegian won it 7-6, 6-4. 

Ruud and Rune have played each other four times on Tour, all face-to-face meetings won by the Norwegian, all played on clay, twice in Monte Carlo, once in Bastad, and at the French Open in 2022.

Despite the head-to-head statistics, bookmakers are on the side of Holger Rune, seeing the Dane as the notable favorite for the upcoming game. Indeed, the Dane has improved since the last head-to-head encounter between Ruud and Rune, winning a number of tournaments on various surfaces. But Ruud hasn't slowed down either, and the Norwegian is comfortably in the top four of the world rankings and has excellent grass court stats. We believe that the line for the upcoming match should be more equal, respectively. Considering the line, we suggest betting on the underdog in this pair.

• W2 for 2.38;
• H2 (2.5) for 1.76.

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