Francisco Cerundolo vs Gabriel Diallo Prediction: Cerundolo’s Consistency vs Diallo’s Rising Momentum; A Showdown in Kazakhstan

In the ATP 250 in Almaty, the semifinals, on October 19, 2024, will feature Argentina's Francisco Cerundolo, ATP 31, going up against Canada's Gabriel Diallo, ATP 118. Both players have been having tremendous runs this season, and this will be no exception as two great styles and forms of play will clash. Power baseliner Cerundolo oozes confidence into this matchup after an emphatic win over Shevchenko, while big-serving Canadian Diallo has risen through the ranks after some good performances, with his hard-fought win against Tabilo a testament to that fact.

Cerundolo has been in decent form of late and has won six of his last ten matches. Indeed, his most recent victory-a 2-0 victory over Alexander Shevchenko, 6-2, 6-3-really showed how well he could dictate rallies by using his powerful forehand, and that he could also hold strong under pressure-saving all the break points in the match.

The Argentine will most probably use his patient, controlled baseline game to try and outlast Diallo in long rallies. Considering the fact that he won a high percentage of points on second serve (92%) in his last match, he can also count on his serve to keep him competitive even when his first serve is not going in well. Cerundolo's conversion of break points-3/3 vs Shevchenko-and also being good on return, especially on second serves-61%-is going to be crucial against Diallo's powerful game.

On the other side, Diallo comes into this semifinal in pretty good form, too, having won eight of his last ten matches. In the last match, he trailed a set to Alejandro Tabilo and came back to win 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, as his mental toughness and potent serving game finally came good. This could be a real dogfight between the steady groundstrokes of Cerundolo and the aggressive first-strike tennis of Diallo.

That the Canadian approach would revolve around his serve is a given, something that has been working a treat throughout the tournament. Having served six aces and having a 76% first-serve percentage against Tabilo, Diallo would want to dominate on serve and keep the points short. The ability to win 70% of the points on his second serve does show his confidence in rallying from both first and second balls. But, he will have to be better in his return game, as the 27% he made on first-serve returns might leave him pretty open to the depth of Cerundolo's shots.

This will be the first meeting between Cerundolo and Diallo, making the match all the more unpredictable. The more experienced Cerundolo at ATP level will look to use his court craft to negate the power of Diallo, while the latter looks to stamp his explosive serve and forehand on the match.

While he may have no reason to fear his opponent on serve, Francisco Cerundolo is the slight favorite because of the consistency across both first and second serves. Still, with Diallo's serve capable of giving him some bother, it's his superior return game and ability to convert the break points that should help him come out on top.

With Diallo's serving power and Cerundolo's consistency from the baseline, this could be one of those matches that sees many holds for both players, hence many games.

• Over 22.5 Games @ 1.7 Odds
• Francisco Cerundolo Wins @ 2.04 Odds
• Francisco Cerundolo Wins 2-0 @ 3.75 Odds