Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal: Second Major win for Medvedev?

The men's Australian Open final will see the world's second and third-ranked players, Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev, cross paths for the fourth time in history. By the way, the Russian and the Spaniard have already played each other once before in the Majors' final, in 2019, at the US Open. Nadal won the decisive five-set match.

In our opinion, the match's fate between Tsitsipas and Medvedev in the AO semifinals was decided by the first game. If Stefanos won that game, the Greek would probably have faced Nadal on Sunday. But it was won by Daniil on the tie-break with a 7-5. The rest was a matter of technique. Stefanos, in turn, did not forget that Medvedev was an uncomfortable opponent for him, and even though he won the second game, he slowly began to fade away. Medvedev has almost two days between the semifinals and the final. Surely Daniil will have time to prepare properly for the decisive match.

Many believe that the current Nadal is markedly inferior to himself two and three years ago. Maybe so, but Matteo Berrettini, one of the best players in recent years and in excellent form, didn't have a chance against Nadal in the semifinals. The Russian is in big trouble if Medvedev doesn't have a high opinion of the Spaniard's current form. Nadal has been preparing for the Melbourne tournament for almost six months, moving step by step towards his dream. So, Medvedev will be playing against possibly the most dangerous and, most importantly, the most motivated opponent, who has the mad experience and is in great shape.

Nadal has beaten Medvedev three times on the tour with one defeat. Daniil defeated the Spaniard at the ATP Finals. And as we know, Rafa has never been the best indoor player. In the Majors, the rivals hooked up once, a tough win for Nadal in five sets in the US Open final. Since then, Daniil has become more experienced, and he won his first Major in New York, but Nadal should not be discounted. We believe the Russian will have a difficult match. We believe in the final victory of Daniil, but the main bet is an option on the total: Total Over (39.5) for 1.83, W1+Total Over (38.5) for 3.85.