Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction: A close game but Alcaraz will prevail

This highly-anticipated face-off between Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz in the 2024 ATP Beijing Tournament promises to be a high-intensity battle between two of the more important figures on the men's tour. World number five Daniil Medvedev locks horns with world number three, Carlos Alcaraz, in a contest that might determine a course of events for the finishing stages of the competition. Coming into this match with Alcaraz leading in head-to-head 5-2, both playing at a good recent level of form, it could be a mouthwatering encounter with contrasting styles and tactics on full view.

There is the consistency of Medvedev pitted against the explosion and variety in Alcaraz's game. While Medvedev relishes the long rallies and tests his opponents similarly with his flat strokes to reach the far back side of the court, Alcaraz himself is a combo of power, speed, and finesse. The surface in Beijing is supposed to be of medium-slow hardcourt, with a view to favoring Medvedev's baseline game. Still, the current form of Alcaraz suggests he can adjust quite well and make Medvedev go on the back foot.

Both come into the match on streaks: Medvedev with three in a row, and Alcaraz, in even better form, with seven consecutive wins. It is under these conditions that the match might come down to small margins, service games and return strategies key.

Medvedev will look to set up his deep court positioning, many metres behind the baseline, to soak up Alcaraz's powerful shots. Perhaps most importantly, he can extend the rallies to make Alcaraz involved in long exchanges of strokes, where the Spaniard might start to make mistakes. While his serve is not his biggest weapon, it's one that might even win him a few free points if his first serve percentage is high. He'll also look to his elite return game to neuter the Alcaraz serve, especially going after the second serve, which Alcaraz is often a little looser with.

Medvedev will also attempt to annoy Alcaraz with his low, flat groundstrokes that skate through the court and make life difficult for Alcaraz to achieve the kind of topspin he loves. One area, too, where Medvedev has to be strong is in holding his concentration during those critical periods, such as when his opponent has break points against him-in the last match, he did well, saving 90% of those points.

Medvedev comes into this match off a good performance against Flavio Cobolli, serving moderately-though somewhat erratically at 55% first serve percentage-and on second serve points, an excellent 88%, while saving 90% of break-points. That clutch gene will be important in this match with an opponent as dynamic as Alcaraz.

On the other hand, Alcaraz will be a great deal more offensive and varied. His aggressive baseline game will be mixed with drop shots and volleys to make things uncomfortable for Medvedev. First serve will again be a critical weapon in his arsenal-the 65% first serve percentage from his last match is one that he needs to match or better to keep the pressure on Medvedev. Alcaraz's aggressive return game, especially when coming up to second serves, can make the difference in this match considering the relatively weak statistics of the won points on second serve by Medvedev. The Russian player won only 47% of those points in his previous match.

He will also look to dictate points early by taking control of the rallies with his foot speed and not really allowing Medvedev to get into his patterns of defense. This could also require him to be very careful not to overpress, because Medvedev is good at turning defense into offense with his counterpunching ability.

While Alcaraz has been in scintillating form, winning his last five matches, including a 2-0 triumph over Karen Khachanov, Alcaraz's serve has held more solid, with a higher first-serve percentage and excellent second serve points won. The ability to convert break points will be important against Medvedev's normally stubborn defense, but Medvedev's low first serve return points of 33% may provide Alcaraz with some good opportunities to dictate the tempo of the rallies.

Alcaraz has shown he can overpower Medvedev, particularly with finishing at the net and relentless pressure from the baseline. The head-to-head advantage will make this match 5-2 for Alcaraz, and while that will give him confidence, the tactical nous and experience of Medvedev might easily make this match much closer than in their recent meetings.

Still, Alcaraz's current form and tactical versatility should give him the edge in this encounter, but it could well be a really closely contested match because of how resilient Medvedev has been. This will be a very contested match that might go in favor of Alcaraz in three sets

• Alcaraz Win + Over 19.5 Games @ 1.94 Odds
• Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Total 3 Sets @ 2.37 Odds