Drama is never in short supply at the ATP Tour Finals, and it's a dead ringer that Casper Ruud against Andrey Rublev in Round 3 of Group B will prove no exception. Both men are eager to get their campaigns back on track after poor starts and this contest could well define which of them goes through to the semifinals. Ruud has been that mix of grit and the unknown this year, much like Rublev throughout this season's Tour Finals. Both will be desperate to come out on top in this very important get-the-job-done affair. The two will indeed make for one of the mouth-watering clashes of this round.
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Casper Ruud enters this match with some mixed results: the big win in round one against the world number one, Carlos Alcaraz, was a huge confidence boost, but defeat to Alexander Zverev in Round 2 means he has work to do if he wants to move on. His opponent, Andrey Rublev, has similarly faced a tough road thus far, losing both of his first two matches in straight sets to Zverev and Alcaraz. There is a huge amount on the line for the players, with another loss possibly seeing either player removed from the tournament.
The head-to-head record between the two is in favor of Ruud, but just by a slight margin, considering that he remains 2-6 down. Considering the form of the two players, though, this match is destined to be way closer. Ruud's fighting spirit under pressure will be put to test, while Rublev's consistency with an aggressive tone will hold the key to his hopes of securing a win.
Tactical Approach
Casper Ruud will need to bank on his powerful game from the baseline and the way he can structure the point, especially keeping Rublev in motion on the court. First serve will be very important; he will be trying to keep a high percentage of first serves in and make sure Rublev can barely attack. The backhand has many times been a weapon for Ruud, particularly against guys who show so much aggression like Rublev, and he will no doubt try to utilize it to nullify Rublev's forehand.
This is where Rublev has got to find his rhythm and try to dictate the points with a big serve. The weapon for him would be his aggressive forehand-if he can make it work. He would like to push Ruud with deep returns, which will force him into errors. Return games, inconsistent at times, have got to be better if he hopes to break Ruud's serve. Moreover, the Russian will have to reduce his unforced errors, which have plagued him in the two matches he has played so far.
Expert Betting Tips
Casper Ruud has had an indifferent tournament so far, but the victory over Carlos Alcaraz showed he can rise to the big occasion. He will need to be at his best to see out Rublev, who has been mired by inconsistency despite the power game. Most of Rublev's losses have come through serving woes-especially when under pressure-and his return game will need some work against Ruud's solid serving.
This might work in Rublev's favor as long as he can keep his cool and doesn't give away too many points through unforced errors. On the other hand, this tendency to lose his focus at vital moments might well prove to be his Achilles' heel. Ruud has always been resilient and will try to exploit those moments by trying to make him work for every point.
The physicality has both players in great shape, but the endurance of Ruud can work against Rublev, who sometimes sees a decline when rallies extend. Ruud's approach, though, will most likely be to make this match all about long, physical points that his consistency may outlast the aggression of Rublev.
- Over 22 Games @ 1.64 Odds
- Casper Ruud Wins a Sets @ 1.43 Odds
- Casper Ruud Wins Match @ 2.20 Odds