In the Erste Bank Open in Vienna, an ATP 500 Round of 32 is underway between two Americans: Brandon Nakashima versus Tommy Paul. Nakashima comes in ranked 38th in the world to take on world No. 12 Tommy Paul in what will be an intriguing contest of form and momentum. Nakashima comes into the match on the back of some discouraging times, losing three matches in a row, whereas Paul is fresh off his title win at the ATP Stockholm. Both players are fighting for different things: Nakashima to get back into his rhythm, and Paul to keep his hot streak alive. This will be an entertaining match.
Grab Welcome BonusBrandon Nakashima
Brandon Nakashima has a more consistent baseline game and is calm on the court, especially in his formative years. However, recent displays insinuate he is very far from his best tennis. He has lost three matches on the trot and six successive sets. His most recent defeat came against Stan Wawrinka in Stockholm, whom he lost in straight sets to. Although his first serve percentage was pretty good at 72%, and he saved 71% of break points, it is on the inability to convert break points-0%-and winning key points on second serve that told in his loss.
The key to this match for Nakashima will be in finding the ways to get in the way of Paul's rhythm and restoring some confidence in his baseline game. He will need to up his aggression on returns, particularly when facing Paul's second serve. Recent matches have seen him struggle somewhat in his return stats, winning a poor 12% of points on first-serve returns against Wawrinka. He will probably be behind for most of the match if he allows Paul to take the front foot with his aggressive groundstrokes and solid serving. Converting the break points will be vital, too-failure to do so will lead to frustration again, knowing Paul will offer very few chances.
Tommy Paul
On the other side, Tommy Paul is enjoying one of his finest streaks of his life. With seven wins in his last ten matches, including an impressive title in Stockholm, Paul arrives into this meeting brimmed with confidence. The serving statistics have been impressive for him, while his return game has looked especially venomous. The highlight of Paul's return in his last match-a convincing 6-4, 6-3 win over Grigor Dimitrov-was his excellent work off the second serve, where he won 64%. An all-court game that merges solid baseline play with forays to the net has proven highly effective for weeks.
While Tommy Paul wants to keep his excellent form going on, he tries to keep Nakashima out of balance with his varied game. He has often managed to change the tempo, spin, and tactics to go his way. Coming to court coverage and a willingness to approach the net will prove to be an important weapon against Nakashima, who is good at longer rallies. He will most likely try to be aggressive on Nakashima's second serve and put pressure on him early in the points. If Paul can continue with his high percentage of points won on second serve-70%-and exploit Nakashima's weaker return game, he will be in a strong position to dominate.
Expert Betting Tips
While Nakashima leads their head-to-head, his recent form does not exude much confidence. Not being able to convert his break points and slipping return efficiency is a pretty big concern against someone like Paul. On the back of three consecutive losses, Nakashima could find it hard to cope with the pressure as the match tightens, particularly if Paul can start strongly and take any early lead.
Meanwhile, Tommy Paul approaches this match on a four-game winning streak and playing some of the best tennis of his career. His victory in Stockholm against a pretty solid field, including Grigor Dimitrov in the final, showed he is capable of winning against top opposition. The return game of Paul has been superior, and considering how Nakashima serves currently, it is expected that Paul should be able to capitalize.
- Tommy Paul Wins & Under 25.5 Games @ 1.936 Odds
- Under 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Odds
- Tommy Paul Wins 2-0 @ 2.10 Odds