Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction: Can Paolini Upset the Dominant World No. 1?

In this high-stakes second round of the WTA Finals, world number one Aryna Sabalenka will face the fourth contender, Jasmine Paolini, who seemed impressive in her first-round victory over Elena Rybakina. Both players come off commanding straight-set victories as Sabalenka defeated Qinwen Zheng, while Paolini topped Rybakina. This will go a long way in showing the form and strength of both players under pressure, as Group A is set to tighten up.

With six straight victories, Sabalenka comes into this match in great form, having polished an aggressive baseline game and strong serve. On the other hand, Paolini is a player who can move around the court quickly and tactically. This is going to be a tough task for her, but she has also shown that she can show up at big times. This will be a tactical match, with more than just points at play here, as a head-to-head deadlock of 2-2 promises very well for a semifinal spot.

The 2024 season has been a procession for Aryna Sabalenka, with the Belarusian simply firing on all cylinders to maintain her lead atop the WTA rankings. Her victory in the first round here showed exactly why she is the one to beat in this tournament, with impressive statistics and a strong hold on momentum throughout. Jasmine Paolini will be coming into this encounter full of confidence after defeating an out-of-form Rybakina. An Italian, she's tenacious and consistent enough in return to turn her into a potentially dangerous opponent-one who can disrupt even the most powerful of hitters.

But the test of Sabalenka's firepower against the resilience and skill of Paolini, this Group A contest is more than a round-robin match. Determined by the spirit of gaining the leading position, tactical exchanges make the encounter absorbing, point for point.

The serve has remained one of the major weapons for Sabalenka, who has shown excellent ability in mixing up speed with angles. In her last match, she served at 61% first serves in, with an astonishing 94% win rate on first-serve points, which is going to be really important against the counter-punching style of Paolini. Expect Sabalenka to aim for short rallies where she can dominate with her forehand. In all probability, Sabalenka will target the backhand of Paolini, trying to overpower the Italian with some aggressive shots from the baseline.

Paolini likes nothing more than to neutralize the big hitters of the world, and she does that great with her feet, taking time away from pace. The return game was a rare bright spot against Rybakina, taking 31% of first-serve returns in and 42% of second-serve returns. She will have to improve on those numbers if she is going to take early control of points away from Sabalenka. She would want longer rallies and capitalize on some inconsistency in the Sabalenka second serve.

Sabalenka will, therefore, come into the encounter as a favorite with her current form, powerful serve, and dominance over the baseline. From the stats of the previous match, one would infer that she was consistent to her serve and precise when it came to holding her nerve under pressure, saving 100% of the break points. This reliability will always put Paolini under pressure to find a way of breaking through the serve of Sabalenka and withstanding her groundstroke power.

The underdog Paolini might have a fighting chance if she can neutralize Sabalenka's serve with deep, angled returns and absorb the power of Sabalenka with her court coverage. With strong second-serve returns and the ability to capitalize on longer rallies, she might be in position to exploit any lapses in Sabalenka's game. She needs to avoid falling behind early, though, as Sabalenka is good at closing out once she gets ahead.

• Under 21 Games @ 1.615 Odds
• Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5) Sets Handicap @ 1.47 Odds
• Sabalenka Wins 2-0 @ 1.57 Odds