The 2024 Swiss Indoors Basel Round of 32 match promises to be a mouth-watering ATP 500 tussle between World No. 7 Andrey Rublev and the steadily rising Portuguese Nuno Borges, ranked No. 32. Rublev comes into this match off his tight loss to Stan Wawrinka and looks to get things going on the hard indoor courts in Basel. Meanwhile, Borges-who last featured in a US Open, going down 3-0 to Daniil Medvedev-will be desperate to leave his dent against the Top 10 opponent.
Both have posted a mixed bag of results in the last 10 outings, at 6-4 apiece. This is a big match for Rublev, who wants to finish strongly and garner enough points to finish the year as high as possible, with a view to taking confidence into the ATP Finals. Borges is still finding his feet at this level but may cause an upset due to his game style.
Grab Signup BonusAndrey Rublev
Rublev comes into the encounter as one of the two more successful men this year, enjoying consistent returns in 2024 on both dirt and indoor hard courts. Still, he has been up and down throughout the year, like that straight-set loss against Stan Wawrinka. Much of Rublev's attacking baseline game is kept up with the strong forehand and, increasingly so, an improving serve.
He'll also want to try to establish who's boss in the earlier stages of rallies. His first serve, though, has yielded 72% of points for him in his last match, was going to be imperative for giving him that attacking platform. Rublev is at his best when in charge, dictating with the forehand, using deep and powerful groundstrokes to push his opponents behind the baseline. However, the return game will have to be polished-his 22 percent success rate in the first-serve returns in his last match is a chink in his armor that Borges might look to exploit.
Nuno Borges
While ranked lower, Borges is no stranger to challenging top-tier opponents, but he may be quite an annoying opponent to confront because of his good defensive skills, which include being able to absorb pressure. Nevertheless, his serve has been inconsistent in this tournament, especially against Medvedev, where he committed 10 double faults and had a first-serve percentage of just 41%. This is an area where improvement will be required if Borges is to have any hope of withstanding the power of Rublev.
He will have to serve a lot better than against Medvedev if he wants a chance. A first-serve percentage of 41% just won't cut it against a returner like Rublev. Borges will do well to mix up his serve placements to Rublev's backhand and follow that up with some aggressive forehands to push Rublev onto his back foot. While Borges' fitness and grinding ability in longer rallies could equally test the patience of Rublev, especially if he's able to make any inroads on Rublev's second serve, where Rublev won only 58% of points in his last match.
Expert Betting Tips
Coming into this match, Rublev is a clear favorite with his better ranking, experience, and power. He could easily overpower Borges with his aggressive baseline game with much potency in his serve, assuming the Rublev of low unforced errors shows up. The Russian will look to shorten the points and try to dominate from the forehand side, taking advantage of Borges' relatively weaker serve.
In turn, Borges has to fix his first serve and play more consistently than he did against Medvedev at the US Open. His defensive game, lengthening of the points, might bother Rublev if this match extends into longer rallies. This is a trend that will have to be overturned if Borges is to capitalize on any of the rare chances that might come his way courtesy of Rublev, as Borges tends to buckle under pressure, reflected in the low break point conversion of 1 in his last match.
- Andrey Rublev Wins & Under 22.5 Games @ 1.675 Odds
- Under 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Odds
- Andrey Rublev Wins 2-0 @ 1.61 Odds