Andrey Rublev vs Alexandre Muller Prediction: A rematch on the cards as Rublev seeks to avenge his loss in Rome

The 2024 ATP Stockholm Open presents an exciting Round of 16 match between the top-seeded Andrey Rublev and France's Alexandre Muller. Rublev, who comes into this match ranked 7th in the world, seeks to regain his rhythm after two consecutive losses, including the surprise in Shanghai at the hands of Jakub Mensik. For his part, the world No. 70 Muller will hope to repeat his result against Rublev, just as he did when they last played at the ATP Rome Masters in May 2024. This is going to be two players of contrasting styles who come into good rivalry, trying to prove themselves on Stockholm's hard indoor surface.

Andrey Rublev comes into this match with some mixed form, having won six in his last ten but two straight losses, including that defeat to Mensik in Shanghai in his last match, where for the first time in a long time, his serve was below par, where he converted just 34% of second serve points and saved only 63% of break points. His form has been erratic of late, so with his spot in the ATP Finals perhaps hanging in the balance, this match is pivotal for the Russian. Rublev's powerful baseline game and aggressive forehand are his weapons of choice, and he'll look to assert himself early in rallies.

Rublev does much better when he can dictate the game by using his forehand as much as possible, a very critical part of his game since Muller is a baseline counterpuncher. He must also try to attack Muller's much weaker backhand side when pressurized. Moreover, Muller's returns against second serves-which are much weaker-will keep giving chances for Rublev to push through for quick points. However, the most important tactical mistake Rublev made in his Rome encounter against Muller was overcommitting to his forehand, which often leaves open a door to unforced errors. Also in this regard, he could be more unpredictable with slices and drop shots to break Muller's rhythm.

Coming into the match, Alexandre Muller is confident after a good 2-0 victory over Stockholm's local favorite Leo Borg, serving with great efficiency, especially off his second serve, where he won an astonishing 95% of those points. The all-rounded game of Muller will again revolve around soaking up Rublev's power and being able to counter-punch efficiently, just like how he did with great success in Rome earlier this year to win 2-1.

The game plan is pretty clear for Muller: be tight and capitalize on Rublev's second serve. In Rome, Muller converted 3 break points. He will again arrive with deep and angled returns in Stockholm while targeting the serve of Rublev. Muller's defensive resilience will look to frustrate Rublev into overhitting. Moreover, Muller's good record of 70% second serve points won in his last match may indicate that if he can extend the rallies, he might force Rublev into mistakes.

This match will most likely come down to how well Rublev can control his serve and avoid unforced errors-particularly off his forehand. While Rublev has lost the last couple of matches, he is still the favourite because of his experience at this level and aggressive game that works well on indoor hard courts. His opponent Muller's confidence cannot be discounted, however, along with their head-to-head result. The ability of Muller to absorb pressure and transition to offense may keep the match in question.

Ultimately, Rublev's higher-ranked consistency and power should see him edge out Muller this time. It may, however, not be straightforward. Muller will push Rublev, particularly if the Russian is weak on his second serve.

• Total Over 22 Games
• Exact Sets 3 @ 2.43 Odds
• Andrey Rublev Win 2-1 @ 3.50 Odds