Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction: Can Rublev’s Consistency Outlast Tabilo’s Resilience?

The Round of 16 at the ATP 500 in Basel will have 7th-ranked Andrey Rublev facing Alejandro Tabilo, the Chilean rising star ranked 21st in the world. The meeting of styles is scheduled for October 23, 2024. Rublev is an aggressive hard-baseliner who often takes opponents to the wire and has won 6 out of the last 10 matches. Tabilo, while struggling in recent weeks, had shown flashes of brilliance against Marin Čilić in his last match, but the inconsistency might cost him dear against a top gun like Rublev.

Andrey Rublev enters this match fresh off a commanding straight-sets win against Nuno Borges, where he played near-flawless tennis. The first serve percentage was somewhat underwhelming, going at 55%, but this was made up by the fact that he was able to win a staggering 96% of his first serve points. The aggressive return game was equally great, converting 4 break points and dominating Borges's second serve. With six wins in the last ten, Rublev has decent momentum going into the match, although his form does have its lapses here and there.

But his signature shot is the blistering forehand, and with that, he will look to dominate rallies, most of all targeting the somewhat error-prone Tabilo backhand under pressure. His first serve percentage in his last match was low at 55%, but he won an astounding 96% of points behind it. He will have to improve his first serve percentage, but if he can manage those numbers, Tabilo will find it hard to break into Rublev's service games.

Aggressive returns from Rublev, especially on second serves, will be deep and heavy. He won only 46% of points on his second serve against Čilić, and Rublev will be using this weakness by attacking early in the rally.

Meanwhile, Alejandro Tabilo heads into this match after gutting his way through a scrappy win against Marin Čilić. Overall, though, Tabilo has had very poor form, winning only 3 out of his last 10 matches, his 11 aces and 69% first serve percentage were highlights of his game against the veteran Croat. Tabilo plays baseline inconsistently, but on the day he is capable of keeping points alive and frustrating opponents with crafty left-handed angles. It will be his job to maintain that against a more consistent and powerful opponent in Rublev.

Tabilo's serve is his big weapon, and with 11 aces in his last match, he can take cheap points provided he serves well. However, in the case of a strong returner like Rublev, he has to keep a high percentage of first serves and cannot give Rublev easy second-serve returns.

Tabilo can't go toe-to-toe with Rublev's power, but he can try to use his lefty forehand to create uncomfortable angles that force Rublev out of position. He will need to extend the rallies and hope for overhit errors from Rublev, which is something the Russian has been known to do when frustrated. Mixing his game with drop shots, slices, and some net play might take Rublev off rhythm. Should it turn into a baseline slugfest, Rublev's superior power will overwhelm the Chilean.

Given current form, stats, and head-to-head history, the match will see Rublev as the clear favorite. He was clinical, his return game particularly so, and closed out the break points against Borges with a class that was well above. Tabilo might be good enough to produce his best serving displays, but sustaining any sort of pressure that Rublev applies in a best-of-three-set match will prove too much for him.

Rublev's ability to win a high percentage of his first serve points and his aggressive returning should pay dividends, therefore giving him the edge over the sometimes vulnerable second serve of Tabilo. The forehand and overall baseline power of Rublev are likely to overpower Tabilo if the Chilean isn't serving at his best.

While Tabilo is capable of keeping matches close, Rublev has shown the ability to stay composed in pressure moments- something that could prove decisive here.

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