Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Aryna Sabalenka: Will Aryna win in three sets?

For tennis fans in Russia and Belarus, the central match of the Round of 32 of the women’s Roland Garros will probably be the duel between Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Aryna Sabalenka. The girls have played twice in the tour, the score is 1-1 so far, but we must note that the only individual meeting on the clay was won by Sabalenka, and quite confidently. And in our opinion, Aryna is the favourite to win Friday’s match.

For Pavlyuchenkova, Roland Garros is her third clay-court tournament of the season. First, Anastasia played the competition in Istanbul, dropping out after her first game against Potapova. Then, the Russian was seen at the Madrid tournament, where Anastasia reached the semi-finals and lost, just to Sabalenka, her future Roland Garros rival. The match lasted over an hour, with Pavlyuchenkova winning just five games. In Paris, Pavlyuchenkova was stronger than McHale and Tomljanovic, both of whom she defeated in two sets. Against Tomljanovic, Anastasia actively won 20 points with 25 unforced errors, her opponent had 11/25.

Sabalenka is not just the favourite for the upcoming game, but one of the most likely winners of the tournament as a whole. The Belarusian has become one of the protagonists of the clay part of the season. In Stuttgart, Aryna reached the finals, losing in the decisive match to Ashleigh Barty. In Madrid, Sabalenka triumphed, defeating Pavlyuchenkova in the semi-finals and getting her revenge against Barty in the final. After Madrid, the Belarusian did not fare well in Rome, defeating Sorribes Tormo and losing to Gauff. In Paris, Sabalenka was stronger than Konjuh and Sasnovich, Aryna won to nil against both. Against Sasnovich, Aryna also had negative winners/unforced errors difference, the same as Pavlyuchenkova, 27/34.

Sabalenka beat Pavlyuchenkova a month ago in Madrid. Aryna is unlikely to have gotten any weaker since then, on the contrary, it is probably Roland Garros that is the main target for the Belarussian at the current stage of the season. In the first two rounds, Sabalenka looked confident, Konjuh and Sasnovich beat her without any visible effort. All in all, we have no doubts that the Belarusian will win. True, we doubt that the victory in Paris will be as easy for Aryna as it was in Madrid. We believe that Pavlyuchenkova will put up a fight in Friday’s match. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian wins a set. Here are the following betting options: Total Over 19.5 for 1.88, Handicap 1 (+5.5) for 1.82, W2 + Total Over 2.5 in sets for 3.82.