Alexander Zverev vs Joel Josef Schwarzler Prediction: Zverev Aims to Bounce Back, Schwarzler Looks for the Biggest Upset in Vienna

In the first round of the ATP 500 Vienna Open, the fantastic encounter between German World No. 3 Alexander Zverev and Austrian wildcard Joel Josef Schwarzler, ranked 348th, will be staged on October 21, 2024. With one coming into this match from two very different seasons, Zverev will look to return to winning ways after his shock defeat in Shanghai, while Schwarzler hopes for a long shot on home soil. While the stakes were high for Zverev's place in the ATP Finals, Schwarzler treated this as an experience to be gained by playing with the top tier.

The third seed Alexander Zverev comes to Vienna determined to put behind him the setback of Shanghai last week, where he lost in the round of 16 to David Goffin. Zverev has been steady, but not spectacular in recent months with a 7-3 mark within his last 10 appearances. Expectedly with that strong serve and aggressive baseline game, he goes into this match as a heavy favourite, but some lapses of concentration have really haunted him during the key moments.

Zverev will most probably look to control the proceedings with his serve, as he often does, seeking to dominate the first-serve percentage game around which his performances usually center at 67%. His game plan going into the match will be to overpower Schwarzler from the baseline with heavy groundstrokes and look to finish the points at the net. Another area Zverev should work on is his second-serve vulnerability: he won only 38% of the points on his second serve against Goffin, showing his weakness there that Schwarzler might exploit.

Meanwhile, much lower-ranked Joel Josef Schwarzler has shown flashes of brilliance on the Challenger Tour. Austrian has had a tough year so far, but he will be really hyped for playing in front of his home crowd against one of the elites of the sport.

Meanwhile, Schwarzler will most likely want to go into the match ultra-defensively, mixing up his serve to keep Zverev off balance. The success of Schwarzler in the Challenger circuit has largely been aided by his ability to serve well, as was evident from the 22 aces he hit in his last match. His second serve has tended to be more brittle, yielding just 44% of points won, and if he is going to make any kind of impact against the big-serving German, it is a return game that will have to improve.

Zverev's loss against Goffin had exposed the chinks in his game-second serve and return of serve. All the same, Zverev has been an achiever at the level of an ATP 500 and knows how to reset and deliver under pressure. The game of Zverev is built on an element of power and precision; especially his serve, which has always kept him out of trouble in first-round matches. This will require a lot of focus throughout the game for him, and he should avoid unnecessary double faults that have somehow crept in of late into his game.

Meanwhile, Schwarzler will have to play with calculated aggression. His serve can be quite a weapon, as it was in the last outing when he struck 22 aces, but his return game has been inconsistent, winning only 20% of points on first serve returns. This is bound to be his Achilles heel against Zverev, who normally feasts on players that have weaker returns.

• Under 19.5 Games @ 1.666 Odds
• Alexander Zverev (-5.5) Games Handicap @ 1.65 Odds
• Under 18.5 Games @ 2.00 Odds