Alex de Minaur vs Hugo Gaston Prediction: A Battle of Contrasting Styles in the Race for a Semifinal Spot

The World No. 9 vs. the World No. 77-ATP 250 Antwerp quarterfinal between Alex de Minaur and Frenchman Hugo Gaston will no doubt be one of this year's most intriguing quarterfinals. Going into the match, De Minaur is in scintillating form, having won 8 of his last 10 matches, whereas Gaston has not been his usually self of late, managing to win only 3 of his last 10 encounters. Where De Minaur brings quick, relentless pace and counterpunching abilities onto the court, Gaston brings a subtle finesse flair onto the court, especially on slow surfaces, which he favors. The last the pair faced off against each other was during the 2022 French Open, in which Gaston won in a five-set thriller. The question is whether de Minaur can exact revenge on an indoor hard court that fits him so much better, or if Gaston will rise to the occasion once again.

Alex de Minaur comes into this match having had to dig deep in a three-set win over Roberto Carballes Baena. A poorish start saw him lose the first set 2-6, but he rallied to take the second and third sets with his usual consistency and counter-attacking flair. First serve percentage was low at 54%, but backed that up impressively with 97% second serve win rate. De Minaur's conversion of 4 out of 7 break points was very instrumental in the turnaround.

The Australian will be counting on his great movement and defense to offset the variety of Gaston. De Minaur should be aggressive, above all with his backhand, trying to push Gaston deep behind the baseline. The indoor hardcourt suits his style, the speed helping him to better dictate the points than on the slower clay. Second serves have customarily been Gaston's weakness and have been exploited many times, so de Minaur would surely focus on that in the tiebreaks, trying to grind him down in longer rallies with his much better fitness.

The three-set win for Hugo Gaston over Mariano Navone came when he prevailed 7-6 in the third set. First serve was something Gaston did efficiently, taking 72% of those points. He converted 5 break points. However, his 7 losses in the last 10 matches suggest inconsistency, which may get expensive against someone like de Minaur who bases much of their game on exposing weaknesses in opponents' games.

For the above to be possible, he will need to be smart, hitting frequent drop shots and with heavy spin to make life hard for de Minaur. As the latter can chase down nearly everything, Gaston will also need to vary the pace and angles, trying to keep the points short whenever possible. This will have to be better than the 60% it was in his last match against Navone, as any slip in his service game will allow de Minaur to step in and control rallies early. Gaston will also have to be better than the 50% he won against Navone when his second serve is in play.

While Hugo Gaston won their last encounter, this matchup is on a surface that really plays into de Minaur's strengths of speed and court coverage. The Australian has looked in fantastic form, and for those reasons, he's a firm favorite to avenge his French Open loss. The drop shots and creative style of play from Gaston may bother de Minaur in the early stages, but throughout the match, the superior fitness and consistency from de Minaur should eventually wear him down.

De Minaur's indoor hardcourt record is greatly influential in the odds in his favor, given his form and ranking of late. Gaston is too inconstant to keep up with de Minaur for a long period of time. The fact that Gaston has shown he can fight will probably only delay the inevitable as de Minaur's resilience and movement on the faster surface see him through in straight sets.

• Alex de Minaur Win + Under 22.5 Games @ 1.6 Odds
• Under 20.5 Games @ 1.74 Odds
• Alex de Minaur (-4.5) Games Handicap @ 1.66 Odds