Aleksandar Vukic vs Karen Khachanov Prediction: Can Vukic Extend His Winning Streak or Will Khachanov’s Experience Prevail?

Aleksandar Vukic will indeed be at a disadvantage in this ATP 250 Almaty semifinal against Karen Khachanov on October 19, 2024. Coming into this match, Vukic, currently positioned at #85 in the ATP ranking, managed to pull off a stunner in the previous round as he defeated top seed Frances Tiafoe in straight sets, 2-6, 6-7. Khachanov #26 fought past Beibit Zhukayev in a ho-hum 6-2, 6-4 victory to set up this intriguing clash of the power hitters on hard courts.

With Vukic riding a three-match win streak and Khachanov's form finally rounding into shape after a patchy season, both players have been doing well of late. The head-to-heads have them traded at one apiece, and this could become a real semifinal slugfest of resilience, big serving, and tactical nuance.

Aleksandar Vukic enters this encounter on the back of some very good form, where he has won seven of his last ten matches, including an upset in the form of the higher-ranked Tiafoe. He is game-based on a solid serve, as demonstrated in the previous match by his 13 aces, with a reliable baseline game. The way Vukic can keep his opponents at bay with deep groundstrokes, and his improved second-serve points won will be very critical at 63% of such points.

Concretely, the basis of Vukic's strategy will be controlling the pace with his serve. First, this involves a high percentage of first serves in-above 70%-and maximum first-serve points won at 79% against Tiafoe. Secondly, taking more break points-he only managed two breaks in his last match-will be of paramount importance. The way forward for him would probably be to attack Khachanov's backhand and get him off rhythm, meaning not allowing him to get into those long rallies where he could be overpowered by Khachanov's power.

Meanwhile, Khachanov enters with a slightly inconsistent form at 5-5 in his last ten, but he has experience at the very highest level. Khachanov's game is built off his big serve and aggressive baseline play. It's no wonder his statistics were dominant in key areas of his last match, winning 82% of first serve points and an incredible 100% on second serves. His return game also has been a weapon, particularly on second serves, where he took 69% of the return points against Zhukayev.

Khachanov will be looking to assert his serve and baseline power early on. The 71% first-serve success will be relied upon to keep Vukic on the back foot, while follow-up forehand winners are pinned. Khachanov has been incisive in his second-serve return game, and he will look to put pressure on Vukic's weaker second serve too. This will all be about staying aggressive and taking control of the points to unsettle the Australian.

The serve will be a big factor for both players, with Vukic attempting to maintain the level from the match against Tiafoe. How well he can defend against Khachanov's aggressive baseline play and how effective his return of serve is will be key in regard to his chances. Khachanov may just win the match because of classier returns off second serves. It should be a very closely contested match with break point conversions and steel in tiebreakers likely to be decisive.

With Vukic carrying the momentum, the constant consistency of Khachanov at a higher level of competition and superior second-serve return makes him a slight favorite. At every instance, Vukic might face difficulty with the relentless baseline pressure.

Both are strong servers, and with neither known for quick wins, this could easily be a stretch in long games and perhaps tiebreaks.

• Karen Khachanov Wins + Over 19.5 Games @ 1.85 Odds
• Over 23.5 Games @ 1.94 Odds
• Total 3 Sets @ 2.20 Odds