Italy vs England Prediction: Italy is poised for a tough initial phase as they rejoin the Six Nations

The 2024 Six Nations Championship kicks off for Italy and England on Saturday afternoon as they face each other at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. This marks the hosts' first match since their exit from the 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC), where they finished third in the group stage behind 2022 Grand Slam winners France and eventual RWC runners-up New Zealand. In contrast, England had an unexpected journey to the semi-finals at the World Cup, where they narrowly lost 16-15 to champions South Africa, concluding with a victory over Argentina in the Bronze Final.

After successfully avoiding the wooden spoon in three out of four Six Nations Championships (SNCs) spanning from 2012 to 2015, Gli Azzurri entered this campaign with the aim of breaking an eight-year streak of finishing at the bottom. Despite being defeated in all five matches last year, they remained competitive throughout the tournament and concluded with a superior points difference compared to fifth-placed Wales. England secured a fourth-place finish, securing victories solely against the two teams ranked below them. However, their journey to the Rugby World Championship's last four has undoubtedly heightened expectations for this championship.

This match signifies the commencement of a new chapter for Italian rugby, with Argentinian Gonzalo Quesada assuming the role of head coach following the departure of New Zealander Kieran Crowley, who had been at the helm since the summer of 2021. Quesada has chosen to maintain flanker Michele Lamaro as the team captain and welcomes back Tommaso Menoncello, who missed the Rugby World Championship due to a bicep injury, to the inside centre position.

England's performance has been lackluster for the past couple of years. The surprising dismissal of Eddie Jones at the end of 2022 led to the appointment of Steve Borthwick to guide the team through the World Cup. Despite the coaching change, England's showing in the 2023 Six Nations remained subpar, including a home loss to Fiji in the World Cup buildup. However, they provided a glimmer of hope during the World Cup, narrowly losing in the semi-final to South Africa, a match they arguably could have won.

It's challenging to deny that England had a relatively straightforward path to the final, facing Japan, Argentina, Samoa, and Chile in their group. While they encountered difficulties in some matches, they ultimately emerged victorious, progressing to defeat Fiji in the quarter-final. The 16-15 loss to South Africa was undoubtedly disappointing, but they rebounded to secure a 26-23 victory over Argentina, claiming third place a week later.

In preparation for the Six Nations Championship, England's new captain, Jamie George, aims to lead an entertaining team that can connect with fans, drawing inspiration from the success of Ben Stokes with the Test cricket team. However, the task becomes more challenging in the opening match, as the exciting fly-half Marcus Smith, who played at full-back during the RWC, is ruled out with a calf injury.

England has dominated their recent encounters with Italy, winning the last 10 meetings in a row, although the margin between the two teams has been narrowing. In the 2023 Six Nations, England secured a 31-14 triumph, marking their biggest winning margin against Italy in the last five encounters, with only a 17-point gap.

Italy's recent performances have been challenging, losing their last two matches by 79 and 63 points. In contrast, England has been in good form, winning six of their last seven matches. Notably, England remains undefeated in all 30 matches against Italy, and they have consistently covered the -15 handicap in their last 11 meetings with the Italian side.

With Italy having faced defeat in all 30 of their previous head-to-head encounters against England, both teams view this as an opportunity to secure a winning start in international rugby. The visitors, who have not allowed more than 15 points in Rome since 2008, approach the match with confidence. Nevertheless, Italy is anticipated to be a formidable opponent, drawing inspiration from their memorable performance in the opening Six Nations Championship game in 2023. During that match, they gave defending champions France a genuine scare, leading 24-22 at the Stadio Olimpico before ultimately falling short with a 29-24 defeat.

Despite the historical trend, with England expected to repeat their success even on the road, they are predicted to cover the -15 handicap for the 12th consecutive match against Italy.