Uzbekistan U23 vs Spain U23 Prediction: Spain will win but goals expected from both teams

In their opening match of the Paris 2024 Olympics on Wednesday, Spain's Under-23 team takes on Uzbekistan's Under-23 team, hoping to surpass their performance three years ago in Japan. Starting their campaigns at Parc des Princes, both countries are trying to advance out of Group C, including the Dominican Republic and Egypt.

Uzbekistan has an impressive track record. Their defensive resiliency is clearly visible with an average xG against of just 0.83 and a defensive advantage score of 58 when playing at home. They have an interesting 8.00 chance of maintaining a clean sheet, but that may be asking too much against a strong Spain U23 defence.

Spain has a good but not perfect away record. Their chances of maintaining a perfect record are 1.77. Given Uzbekistan's excellent home xG of 1.71, their defence may confront difficulties.

The betting lines point to a high-scoring contest in terms of goal totals. The game is expected to be action-packed and feature over 2.5 goals. 

Overall, despite Spain's early advantage, this matchup is significantly more competitive than the odds would indicate. There will be an exciting fight.

Having never qualified before, Uzbekistan is playing football in the Olympics for the first time. Similar to Spain, the White Wolves were defeated by Japan in the recent Under-23 Asian Cup final in Qatar, which served as their equivalent of a qualifying competition.

The disappointment of Timur Kapadze's team was somewhat mitigated by the fact that they made it to France; their semi-final victory over Indonesia having already secured the deal. However, the team missed a late penalty that may have forced extra time.

Uzbekistan has previously placed in the top two of that competition twice, but not during Olympic years. Now that they have finally been rewarded, expectations of qualifying from Group C should be enhanced by the addition of Eldor Shomurodov, a striker for Roma, as one of three overage players.

With 40 goals in 40 senior international matches, Shomurodov is his country's all-time leading scorer. He carries a big weight, but he also has the opportunity to create even more history.

After the senior national team's triumph at Euro 2024, Spain's Under-23 team will attempt to win the men's Olympic football competition in France and make it a golden summer. Santi Denia could only select a roster of three overage players, as per the tournament regulations, and could only include players who were born in 2001 or later.

A number of the stars of this year's European Championship victory, including Unai Simon, Pedri, Dani Olmo, and final hero Mikel Oyarzabal, participated in the postponed Tokyo 2020 games. Luis de la Fuente managed La Rojita's journey to the Olympic final.

A team that also includes Eric Garcia, a former Barcelona defender who is returning to the team this summer, lost to Brazil 2-1 in overtime and had to settle for silver in the end.

After placing second in the 2023 European Under-21 Championship, Spain advanced to their 12th Olympics, and they now aim to resemble the team that took home the gold in 1992.

With the exception of last week's practice match against the USA, Santi Denia's Spain team is composed of a number of well-known La Liga players, such as Fermin Lopez and Pau Cubarsi of Barcelona.

The latter will compete with Valencia's Cristhian Mosquera to partner Eric Garcia at the center of La Roja's defense following his breakout season the previous year.

Even though Uzbekistan's team has been together for some time, a number of Spanish players who came through a strong junior system at the same time as Uzbekistan should have a solid understanding of one another.

Although La Rojita are clearly among the favorites in the competition, they might have to work hard to win in Paris.