Paris 2024 Medal Standings Prediction: the Favorite Has Few Rivals

The XXXIII Summer Olympic Games kick off in Paris on July 26th, and the US team is the clear favorite to win both the overall medal count and the gold medal. Will anyone be able to stop the United States?

The American team's unparalleled performance in the history of the Olympic Games, both summer and winter, is truly impressive. With a total of 2,934 medals, they have outshone all other participants. Great Britain, the second-place holder, has only 949 awards. At the Summer Olympics, Americans won 2629 medals, 1060 of them gold. For comparison, if we add up all the medals of the USSR, CIS, Russia, and ROC teams, you get 1643 medals, including 611 gold. This is a testament to the US team's exceptional performance over the years.

At the last Olympic Games in Tokyo, the US team took first place in the overall medal count with a clear advantage - 113 awards to 88 of the nearest pursuer, China. At the same time, the Americans beat the Chinese by only one victory - 39 to 38. The most "profitable" sport for the US team was swimming - 11 gold, 10 silver, and eight bronze medals.

If we take the 2016 Olympics in Rio, the Americans won even more - 121 medals (46 gold). The second was Great Britain - 67 (27). At the 2012 Olympics, the United States had 103 medals (46). China was second with 91 (38). At the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the Americans lost the gold medal count to the hosts - 36 to 48 - but took advantage in total medals than the Chinese - 112 to 100. Looking a little further back in history, the US finished first in both gold and overall medals at the Olympics from 1996 to 2004, and the last time they lost was in 1992 to the Unified Team (CIS).

China is the second favorite, according to the bookmakers. Is it realistic for the Chinese to overtake the US in the overall standings? It's a long shot. The only time the team topped the list was at the 2008 Games on home soil, and that was only in terms of gold medals, not the total number of awards. Next on the list of favorites are Great Britain, France, and Japan, but it is clear that a better showing by any of these teams than the US is nothing more than a fantasy.

Team USA has not lost the overall medal count at the Summer Olympics since 1992 - even in Beijing, the Americans finished ahead of China. This fact helps explain why the odds of the favorite dominating are so low. If you're looking for a done-deal option, you can back the USA to win the overall medal count.

We're taking the US gold medal total over 39.5 for our prediction. In two of the three previous Olympics, the Americans have surpassed that point, and when they haven't, there have been precisely 39 first-place finishes.

Let's take the German team's medal total as another option. The Germans have won more than 35 medals in the last eight Olympics.