Iraq U23 vs Ukraine U23 Prediction: Ukraine to take all 3-points

In the first Group B match of the Men's Olympic Football Tournament at the Paris 2024 Games, Iraq and Ukraine square off on Wednesday at Stade de Lyon. Argentina and Morocco, who are seen as the favourites to go to the knockout stages, are also in their group with these two countries. 

The more experienced team going into this match is Ukraine U23. Their perfect away record is backed by an average xG of 2.37 and a 100% victory rate, with only 0.37 conceded. The home xG of Iraq U23, in sharp contrast, is 2.03, while the defensive xG is 1.26, suggesting possible weaknesses.

The majority of these nations' squads are domestic, with Ukraine U23 entering their opening game as the favourite. In their last six games across all competitions, Iraq U23 has lost two and failed to score in both of those instances. In their last five games, Iraq U23 has scored more than 2.5 goals in three of them. Four of the past five games for Ukraine U23 have seen at least three goals scored.

Iraq U23 hopes to at least advance past the group stage of the Olympics after earning a spot for the third time.

Iraq U23 finished fourth in Greece in 2004 but did not get past the group stage in their previous Olympic competition, which took place in Brazil in 2016. Three players who play in Europe are named in the current Iraq U23 squad: midfielder Youssef Amyn, who plays for Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany; Hussein Ali, who plays for Heerenveen in the Netherlands; and striker Josef Al-Imam, who plays for the Swedish team Olympic.

Iraq will participate in the men's football tournament for the sixth time at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, and it will be their first time since their unsuccessful attempt to advance past the group round in Rio 2016.

Under the guidance of Radhi Shenaishil, who has been in charge of the national squad for about two years, Iraq advanced to the semi-finals and finished third at the 2024 AFC Under-23 Asian Cup, earning a spot in this year's competition.

Shenaishil, 58, is anticipated to apply a strategy centred on quick counterattacks and making the most of set-piece situations. He has refuted allegations from a few months ago that he had tendered his resignation and has stated that he is committed to leading Iraq in Paris.

Iraq, also known as the Lions of Mesopotamia, lost 2-1 to Egypt in a friendly match last Wednesday; prior to this, Shenaishil's team had won four of the six games they had played at the 2024 AFC Under-23 Asian Cup between mid-April and early May. Now, they will play their first group-stage match.

While Ukraine is gearing up for their seventh Summer Olympics since the end of the Soviet Union, they will be participating in the Men's Olympics Football Tournament for the first time at these Games.

After placing second in their group and defeating France in the quarterfinals of the 2023 UEFA European Under-21 Championship, the Blue and Yellow have advanced to the semifinals and are now eligible to compete in the Paris Games. However, they were soundly defeated 5-1 by Spain in the final four.

After winning five of his eight games in charge since March, Ruslan Rotan, who played for Ukraine and received 100 caps, has been the national team's youth coach for the past six years. He started off coaching the Under-18s before moving on to the Under-23s.

In order to be ready for the Paris Games, Ukraine participated in two friendly matches. Last Thursday, they drew 2-2 with Paraguay and drew 1-1 with Egypt. Rotan, 42, has stated that his team is "ready" for their first group-stage match despite implying that he is not entirely pleased with the warm-up results.

There isn't much separating these two countries, who are hoping to start strong on matchday one and get in the top two of Group B. Though we think Ukraine will win this match in Lyon, both teams have the ability to cause each other trouble in the closing third.