Ustarmagomed Gadzhidaudov vs Ali Bagov Prediction: Betting on a Gadzhidaudov Upset

Ustarmagomed Gadzhidaudov vs Ali Bagov is one of the interesting matchups at ACA 150 as it is between Russian compatriots and is foreshadowed by Bagov’s misadventure with Rashid Magomedov in the quarterfinals of the lightweight Grand Prix in July. Bagov and Magomedov fought a passive fight that infuriated the head of the organization Mairbek Khasiev, who stepped into the Octagon and declared the fight a no contest and disqualified both fighters from the semi-finals of the Grand Prix. Against Gadzhidaudov, highly rated Bagov will seek to get his reputation back and also get back to the winning streak he was enjoying before the No Contest blemish. Ustarmagomed Gadzhidaudov is the bookies’ underdog in this bout.

Number three ranked welterweight in the promotion fought in August when he secured a unanimous decision win over Azamat Amagov. That win returned the 31-year-old fighter to the win column after a split-decision loss to Abubakar Vagaev in March. The loss stopped a four-match winning streak stretching all the way to 2021. Three of those wins came by decisions. The native of Makhachkala has fifteen professional wins, seven of which are decisions and the other eight are split evenly between submissions and knockouts. 

“Hulk” uncharacteristically produced a passive performance in his last fight against Magomedov. An efficient wrestler, the number four ranked welterweight has twenty-four submissions from thirty-two wins. He has lost ten times in his professional career. Prior to his last loss against Murad Abdulaev in 2020, he went on a seven-match win streak. The 32-year-old from Baksan is rated highly in the division and has been installed as favorite to win the bout by the sportsbooks.

After a passive fight last time, the odds are that Bagov will put up a better performance to reassure his fans and the promotion. He will also be looking to return to winning ways as the NC in the last fight ended a winning streak of three matches. The odds have reflected this sentiment. However, we believe Ustarmagomed Gadzhidaudov will pull the upset here. He was in good form before losing to number-one-ranked Abubakar Vagaev via split decision in March. He immediately rebounded to winning ways in August with a unanimous decision. An expert in drawing out fights and winning by decision, going for a Gadzhidaudov win is good value.