Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho Prediction: A winner inside the distance

After getting into the Flyweight rankings, young Brit Muhammad Mokaev continues his predicted rise in the Flyweight class as he tackles debutant Jafel Filho at the O2 Arena in the prelims of UFC 286. Once again, the Brit is the overwhelming favorite of the bookies as he fights in London for the third time in four UFC fights. His opponent Jafel Filho has been successful in the Brazilian regional scene, known for his solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu. At thirty, the contender series alumna is arriving late to the UFC but comes with some varied experience.

Mokaev debuted in the UFC one year ago with a Performance of the Night winning by guillotine choke in the first round against Cody Durden. He fought twice more stopping Michael Gordon and going the distance with Charles Johnson. “The Punisher” is undefeated both as a pro and as an amateur. At 22 years old, he has nine pro wins and one no-contest. A feared wrestler, Muhammad Mokaev is also a dangerous striker, so confident that he has been accused of showboating. He has spinning kicks, lead sidekicks, flying knees, and leaping punches in his ammunition. Mokaev has been touted as a future UFC Flyweight champion.

Jarful Filho defeated Roybert Echeverria last September by TKO in Dana White’s Contender series. The Brazilian grappler had picked up some good records in the Shooto Brazil promotion. A jiu-jitsu practitioner, he is a specialist on the back with highly developed grappling skills. Fighting with a relaxed style, “The Pastor” likes to feel out his opponent with some early leg kicks before unleashing his boxing. When he hits his stride he has a high work rate. His most efficient skill is his takedowns. He also loves to fight against the cage with the rear-naked choke being his most utilized submission.

The fight is likely to be a high quality grappling contest between two fighters reliant on their wrestling skills and whose team will likely spend the strategy session focusing on the other’s wrestling weaknesses. In his fight against Malcolm Gordon last year, Mokaev was put in a tight spot when Gordon took his back but ultimately could not execute the submission. That fight will be Filho’s playbook. The young Brit fighting at home has enough grappling and striking skills to overcome the Brazilian prospect. With the fight likely to be mostly executed on the mat, we think Mokaev will find the submission one way or the other. Not writing off the grappling and wrestling skills of the Brazilian, the contest for him will be a test of the quality of his takedown defense. 

• Total Under 2.5 at 1.7 odds on 1xbet
• W1 by submission at 2.1 odds on Coinplay
• Under 2.5 at 1.69 odds on Betking