Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Prediction: New Champion is Coming

On the night of December 16th and 17th, UFC 296 will take place in Las Vegas, with the main event being a welterweight bout between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington. Leon Edwards is currently the reigning champion, while Covington is ranked third. 

Leon Edwards came to the UFC in 2014 as a BAMMA champion with only one loss in his career. By 2019, he reached the top of the rankings. Still, suddenly, there was some anomaly with him - six fights were canceled. When he did get to the octagon, his fight with Belal Muhammad was stopped and recognized as a failure because of a poke in the eye from Edwards.

But he didn't have to be sad, and fate gave him back everything. Leon, having warmed up on Nate Diaz, defeated Kamaru Usman twice, becoming the champion and defending the title in a rematch. He lost the first fight by one round, but at the last minute, he caught Usman on a high kick, knocking him out. He seemed to fail the second one, but the judges gave him the win by majority decision.

Edwards' strengths are standing, but his weaknesses are two: parterre (especially against Colby Covington) and cardio (especially against him). Nevertheless, his two fights with Kamaru Usman have boosted Leon's confidence. He has also perfected his ability to be patient and follow through with his game plan.

Colby Covington is the UFC's ultimate underdog and one of the most popular fighters in the world. This guy doesn't shy away from dirt and can give master classes on thrash-talk. As for his fighting skills, they are incredibly high - he has been one of the contenders for the welterweight belt for a very long time.

However, Colby was already an interim champion when he won by decision over Rafael dos Anjos in 2018. But two attempts to take the belt of the real champion failed - both times he couldn't defeat Kamaru Usman.

Covington had his last fight a long time ago. In March of last year, he beat his former best friend in five rounds.

The fight with Edwards will be Covington's third attempt to become champion. And there is a suspicion that he will have an easier time with Leon than with Usman.

I'll beat him in every aspect. I'm better at wrestling, I'm better at striking, and I'm better at jiu-jitsu. My cardio, he can't catch up with it. He's getting slower in his fights. He goes out, throws 50-60 leg kicks, 50-60 arm kicks, and then starts to slow down. So I'm going to wear him down and break him. I'm going to break his will. He knows what will happen: he's going to break in front of the whole world.

Colby Covington

The champion is already perfect in the parterre, but his level is still not comparable with the extra-class fighters. And who else can be called an extra-class wrestler if not Colby Covington? That's probably the main thing, but there are a few other little things to note. There are always the little things that decide the outcome. Leon's cardio is slipping, and he doesn't have a knockout punch - his iconic knockout in the title fight was the only one in several years). Moreover, he's constantly giving away the initiative, which against Covington is like death. Therefore, Colby's task is clear - to press his opponent without pause, threatening him with takedowns and eventually dragging him to the floor.