Kevin Lee vs Rinat Fakhretdinov Prediction: A fight to death at Apex

In the night's penultimate preliminary card event, welterweights Kevin Lee and Rinat Fakhretdinov square off. Lee was a perennial contender, but he never quite found his footing. In his last seven bouts before taking a one-fight break, he went 2-5. Fakhretdinov, who made his MMA debut with a one-sided decision win over Bryan Battle earlier this year, will be looking to launch himself into the MMA mainstream with a victory over Lee on Sunday.

After competing in 18 bouts for the UFC, Lee left the organization for the first time in 2021. During that time, he headlined six different card events. During his most dominant stretch, he amassed five consecutive victories, which earned him the opportunity to challenge Tony Ferguson for the interim lightweight title at UFC 216. Kevin Lee faced Daniel Rodriguez in his most recent bout, which ended in a loss for him by virtue of a unanimous decision in the third round. His opponent was victorious in that fight. During that fight, Rodriguez was successful with 137 of the 229 total blows that he threw. Lee was able to finish this battle having landed 74 strikes out of a total of 181 attempts. Rodriguez ended up landing 120 of 210 important strikes, which gives him a percentage of 57%. This indicates that he was successful 57% of the time. He was successful in landing 87 of the 175 serious blows that were aimed at the head. On the other hand, Lee was successful in landing 35 percent of his significant strikes, or 56 out of 160 total hits. He was successful in landing 39 out of 134 blows that were directed towards the head, which is a high percentage. Rodriguez was responsible for 94% of the significant hits connected, while Lee was responsible for 98% of the significant hits landed.

Fakhretdinov, who has a record of 21-2 in mixed martial arts and two victories in the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), will compete in his first fight of 2023. He engaged in two bouts and won both of them by unanimous decision, one over Andreas Michailidis and the other against Bryan Battle. Rinat Fakhretdinov defeated Bryan Battle in his most recent fight by earning a unanimous decision in round 3 of their matchup earlier this year. While Fakhretdinov connected on 18% of his significant strikes when they were attempted at a distance, the battle was successful with all of the significant strikes he attempted at a distance. Fakhretdinov was successful with 63% of the big strikes he tried, landing 43 of a total of 68 hits. He was successful in landing 38 out of 62 severe blows to the head. In that bout, there were a total of 16 important strikes, and Battle connected on three of them. In terms of important strike accuracy, he only connected with the head once out of eleven times. In that match, Battle was successful with 25 of the 42 strikes he threw, whereas Fakhretdinov connected with 102 of the 149 blows he threw in total. Battle's success rate was significantly lower than Fakhretdinov's.

Kevin Lee is not as effective a grappler when it comes to wrestling, as he takes his opponents to the mat 3.19 times per 15-minute period. Lee is successful in taking down his opponents 43% of the time out of every 100 attempts, while his opponents are unsuccessful in their takedown attempts 75% of the time. Fakhretdinov is successful in taking down his opponents 63% of the time and is able to escape 85% of the time when his opponents attempt to take him down. Lee is the more talented fighter when it comes to going for the submission. He goes for 0.8 submissions every 15 minutes, while Fakhretdinov only goes for 0.5 submissions every 15 minutes. However, I do not believe that Kevin Lee will be at his best during this fight. Since Rinat Fakhretdinov is the favorite to win this fight, I anticipate that he will be the one to take the victory.