Keith Thurman vs Mario Barrios: Unsuccessful Return

Early in the morning on February 6, two former world champions, Keith Thurman and Mario Barrios, will meet in the ring. Thurman has not competed in two and a half years.

The legendary, one might say, Keith Thurman hasn’t performed since the summer of 2019. Then he suffered a loss to the living icon of modern boxing Manny Pacquiao (the bout was at close quarters and ended in a split decision)

Keith lost his WBA welterweight title in that very fight. Before that, he had another long break, almost two years, because of many injuries.

If you recall Thurman from the recent past, the first thing that comes to mind is heavy hands punches (22 knockouts are no joke). He also has a very diverse arsenal. He can work from a distance with single punches and series, change the speed modes of attack, intelligently distribute his forces for twelve rounds, varying the tempo.

Mario Barrios had the best record out of the small handful of fighters presented to me. He had an exciting performance against ‘Tank’ Davis, and it just seemed like it’d be a great challenge for both of us. We’re two fighters who are exciting in the world of boxing, talented, and coming off their first career losses. It might not sound exciting at first, but if you understand what it is to have a competitive mindset, you know both of us will demand greatness out of ourselves.

Keith Thurman

Barrios was the WBA World light-welterweight champion. Mario won it in September 2019 by outboxing Russian Batyr Akhmedov.

Barrios performed his first defense a year later, knocking out middleweight Ryan Karl. In June 2021, he did not use the unexpected opportunity to make a loud statement, losing to American lightweight Gervonta Davis in the eleventh round. The latter coveted the title in the third division and chose not the most difficult of options.

In that bout with Davis, Mario did a great job. He led on the judges’ scorecards until the eighth round, but then he couldn’t handle the pace and power of Jervonta. However, he certainly gained experience, and that will help him. 

The failure prompted Mario to gain weight, debuting at 66.7 kg. Barrios is younger than Keith Thurman, superior in height and arm length, less worn out. His downtime is not as long. He may open up in his new weight class in a new way.

Thurman has only won one fight in the last few years, and he will not look like his past self. Time, years, slack- only Rocky in movies can return to the same level. Those cases are extremely rare. So betting money that Keith Thurman will be the one to get it - I won’t. Indeed, he’s an elite boxer, one of the best in the world, but the keyword here is “was.”

Keith Thurman would be a big favorite if it weren’t for such a pause, numerous injuries, and the unclear situation with his current form. According to the analysts, he is still the odds-on favorite, but we disagree.

Betting options:

W1 for 1.47

W2 for 2.93

Total Under (10.5) for 2.41

Total Over (10.5) for 1.54