Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington: This fight won’t make it to the halfway point

The rematch between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington will take place on November 7. The fight will headline the UFC 268 tournament.

Even though Usman is the undisputed, dominant champion, this bout is generating quite a bit of interest, and things aren’t as clear-cut as the bookies are trying to tell us. Just remember the first fight. Covington was as good as it gets. I would even say that he took the first half of the fight. The second half was very close. And he fought with a broken jaw. And there are some questions about the stoppage, too - yes, Kamaru is a beast, and he knocked Covington down amazingly. Still, his punches were not precise and fatal (as it seemed), and if the referee wouldn’t have interfered, maybe Covington would have survived. And then it was up to the count.

But Kamaru himself, of course, fully agrees with the referee’s decision.

In the last minutes of the fifth round, I turned into a tank. I was unstoppable, rolling down my victim. Stoppage? You must understand that a strong-headed athlete, perfectly prepared functionally, will always want to fight and compete. That’s why you need a referee to stop him and save him years of life. I had already broken his jaw and was now going for his orbital bones. I would have broken his whole face. I would have inflicted such damage on him that he would have contemplated continuing his career. Just look at his face when he stood up. No, mate, the fight is over.

Kamaru Usman

The 34-year-old Nigerian fighter has 19 wins (9 KOs, 1 submission) and only one defeat in his overall pro record, which he suffered early in his career, back in 2013, at a CFA tournament.

I feel like a little kid before Christmas. I’m so excited to finally get what I asked for. Some say our first fight was not competitive. I beat Usman in a few rounds. He even had to break the rules to recover. I kicked him in the liver and made him stagger a few times after missed punches, after which he faked a poke to the eye. But we know what a bad actor Usman is. That’s all in the past. Now we will see a second fight in which things will be different. It’s been two years since we first fought. He and I are working with new coaches. I do not doubt that the championship is my destiny.

Colby Covington

Colby Covington isn’t loved because of his activity on the Internet, but there’s no denying that he’s a tough fighter. He’s rightfully ranked number one in the division, incredibly good in wrestling, and has pulled his striking up pretty high as well.

He’s a real badass. He won’t give up, he won’t back down, and he’s already felt the pressure from the champion and has been preparing for it purposefully.

The 33-year old American has 16 wins (2 KO’s, 6 submissions) and only two defeats (TKO’s and submissions) in his pro record. One of those was by Usman in their previous fight, and the other he suffered in 2015 from Warlley Alves, caught in a guillotine. After that, he won seven in a row.

All the experts, as one, are inclined to believe that Kamaru Usman will outbid the challenger this time. Here are the fighters’ most interesting predictions.

It’s hard to say; they are both very tough fighters. But if I had to put money on this fight, I’d put it on Usman. Kamaru is very smart. Everyone thought his second fight with Masvidal would be like his first, but he went out and knocked out Jorge.

Glover Teixeira

I think it’s going to be a tough fight for Colby. But at the same time, he has a very fighting attitude. He’s inferior to Usman in punching power, but he beats any opponent in the number of punches he throws. Colby also has excellent wrestling skills. Covington is one of those who can take the title away from Usman. But if you name the favourite for this fight, it’s certainly Kamaru Usman.

Demian Maia

Who will win this fight? I pick Usman as the winner. Kamaru has evolved and has shown in recent fights that he has become stronger in uncomfortable areas for Covington. Covington can take whatever steroids he wants, but he still can’t beat Usman.

Jorge Masvidal

To sum up, the analysts at bet365 also put Usman as the big favourites. The odds on his win are 1.30, while the odds on Colby Covington are already 3.50. But the fire in this clash will start with the first referee’s command, and I think it will be over in the first half of the fight.