Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio: Santiago is not the same after the pause

Early on December 12, UFC 269 will take place in Las Vegas. One of the main card fights feature Geoff Neal (USA) and Santiago Ponzinibbio (Argentina).

This is a welterweight division fight. Geoff Neal is ranked #12 in the official UFC rankings, while Santiago Ponzinibbio is #14.

The tough puncher Geoff Neal lost his previous two fights and now it’s hit or miss.But I think he's got a better chance of hitting, as the memories of his high kicks are too strong in my mind... You can't just walk away from that, it takes a talent like Alexander Emelianenko.

He lost his last fight to Neil Magny in the most boring confrontation. But then he explained that it was all about illness, which even made him ready to withdraw from the fight.

«Felt really good in the first round and the second one was close. Even in defeat I’m still proud of this one as well. It was another honor to step in there with another crafty veteran in Neil Magny. I’m probably gonna take some time away and take care of my health a little bit. My body hasn’t been right since I got sepsis last year. I’ve been dealing with off and on sickness and severe lack of energy since then. I almost pulled out of this fight last week because I was vomiting/diarrhea for 3 days and after having to rehydrate and replenish what my body lost I found myself sitting at 208 pounds exactly 1 week before weigh ins.»

Geoff Neal

The legendary El Rasta missed three years, came back badly (losing by knockout in the first round), but his last fight saw him win by decision over Miguel Baeza (10-0 record at the time, 10-2 now).

By the way, this fight got the "Fight of the Night" title and it was a spectacular one.

Yes, of course, Ponzinibbio is a fan favorite, a very bright and uncompromising fighter. So the bookies quoted him as the favorite, which seems to be a mistake. Neal may well catch him slipping, and if he doesn't, Santiago will certainly have the advantage in the open brawl.

Looking at the objective statistics of the fighters before the fight, you can always find something interesting and useful. But you still can't blindly rely on the numbers, as you have to take into account the level of opposition of the fighters.

I think it is unlikely that the duel will last the whole distance. Even the bet "Total Under 1.5” at odds of 2.35 from 1xbet has the right to live. But still, in order not to risk too much and to get the odds more or less decent, I'd choose Neil's victory for 2.00 from bet365.

The Argentinean was knocked out by Li Jingliang in the first round, and the Chinese fighter's power was clearly demonstrated to us by Khamzat Chimaev. Miguel Baeza, who was beaten by Santiago, is good, of course, but clearly not Jeff Neal's level.