Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich Prediction: the Outcome Isn't Obvious

On the night of July 30 to 31 in Dallas (USA) will be held the numbered tournament UFC 277. Russian fighter Sergei Pavlovic will meet American Derrick Lewis in one of the main bouts.

The fight will take place in the heavyweight division. Derrick Lewis is ranked number five in the official UFC rankings of the division, while Sergei Pavlovic is ranked number 11. In bookmaker's betting odds, there is no clear favorite.

Derrick Lewis is a fan favorite, a martial artist who either knocks out or gets knocked out. This is a man capable of sensation, thanks to his skill at winning by touch. No one has ever seen Lewis' wrestling skills, and he doesn't need any wrestling. For a long time the experts thought that because of his monotonous tactics he wouldn't rise high, but in the fight against Curtis Blades Derrick proved that just speed and power can make the crucial difference. 

But after that resounding victory, the fighter's stock plummeted again. First he was dismantled for parts by Cyril Gane in a title bout, and in the last fight Tai Tuivasa suddenly finished him off. In between, Derrick Lewis knocked out promising Chris Daukaus by inertia.

The boxing journey it seems like you gotta train a lot more, you gotta do a lot more cardio and running and stuff like that. I'm not with all that... So, MMA to me is like, mostly like, street-fighting. So, it's like you do everything you want except for pulling hair and hitting in the nuts. So, I'm down with that.

Derrick Lewis

Not so long ago Sergei was probably the most promising Russian heavyweight, but in 2020 and 2021 he didn't have a single fight and everyone forgot about him. In March of this year, Pavlovic returned to the cage and did it triumphantly, beating by TKO in the first round another Russian top contender Shamil Abdurakhimov.

Thus, Sergei won his three previous fights in the first round, and suffered his last defeat in November 2018 from Alistair Overeem.

The Russian's boxing technique is more varied, and he has the hardest punch. Theoretically he can avoid scary punches of Lewis by means of footwork and switching to ground work. The truth is that Volkov was thinking the same thing, but he lost concentration and was knocked out by Lewis ten seconds before the end of the fight. Nevertheless, Sergei has already proved that he can learn from his and the others' mistakes. Just remember how hopelessly he lost to Overeem, but since then he has found a way out of such situations.

Bookmakers, for obvious reasons, do not see a favorite in this confrontation. 

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