Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler: Odds are even, but the American will be comfortable in the stance

The highly anticipated UFC 262 tournament will take place on May 16 in Houston, USA. In the main event, Charles Oliveira (No. 3 officially ranked) will challenge US fighter Michael Chandler (No. 4 officially ranked) for the lightweight title.

Oliveira holds the record for the most finishes in the UFC, 16! He also has the same number of bonuses. What does that tell you? That the fight won’t be boring, although we already knew that after his fight with Tony Ferguson.

Oliveira’s path is different from that of many other champions. He came to the UFC when he was 20 years old, lost a lot at first, but developed, and now he is here. His jiu-jitsu is cool, but his kick is underestimated (many consider him only as a ground floor specialist, and it is completely in vain). But Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu is, of course, something cosmic. It sculpts his techniques from all positions and he won with six different techniques!

And even if he wins by knockout/technical knockout, then this is somehow connected with his pressure on the ground. Here are his recent victories (he could not finish Ferguson simply because he was ready to die and not surrender, it was really scary to look at the painful hand):

• Tony Ferguson, unanimous decision (Tony was just declassified);
• Kevin Lee, guillotine choke in round 3;
• Jared Gordon, knockout in round 1;
• Nik Lentz, technical knockout in round 2;
• David Teymur, anaconda choke in round 2;
• Jim Miller, rear-naked choke in round 1;
• Christos Giagos, rear-naked choke in round 2;
• Clay Guida, guillotine choke in round 1.

But Charles doesn’t hunt for submissions, he creates them. He can fight quite well, at the highest level, and wait for the moment to move to the ground. He has a huge arsenal and why it took so long to get him to the title. Even if he hadn’t beaten Khabib he would have been a 100% better competitor for the title than that Justin Gaethje. Or maybe he would have won, what can we say about that now.

Chandler came from Bellator and introduced himself very brutally to the UFC audience by knocking out Dan Hooker in the first round, who incidentally was also dreaming of a title shot.

The main weapon of his current opponent for the champion fight is wrestling, everybody knows that. But here the funny thing is that throughout his long career (27 fights) Michael Chandler has never lost by submission!

His wrestling is also at the highest level (he is a basic wrestler), but everyone forgets about it against the background of his completely insane punching. If he does not manage to knock out quickly, he goes into the fight and vice versa, exhausts in the ground (if it is not possible to secure), and then finishes with his hands. Chandler's submission wins are not much less than knockout wins.

If Michael Chandler can’t shake Oliveira down quickly, the fight will go to the ground. Here, Charles will be looking to finish (even if he ends up on the bottom) and Michael will be punching - and it’s not a given that he’ll want to go back to the stance.

And no matter what anyone says, the truth is that in this particular fight, the winner will need luck. There’s no favourite here, the fighters are equal, and equal in every aspect. We think Chandler has a slightly better chance of winning. He’ll be more comfortable in the stance, he’ll be able to group his strong body again and threaten with both punches and takedowns. And on the ground, he will most likely be on top. Of course, against Oliveira and this is dangerous but still less dangerous than being from below and makes it possible to attack with a grand and pound.

But overall, the odds are even, of course. Nevertheless, we’re offering odds of 2.04 on Chandler’s win and 1.70 on Oliveira’s.

I go out and find myself right in front of Charles Oliveira, who in the very first exchange of punches, at the first pressure I put on, will begin to doubt himself. He will immediately begin to react sharply and worry about his legs. I will arrange a hunt for his head, his legs, his whole body, and the first blow that hits the target will finish him off.

Michael Chandler