Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction: Maple Leafs to start off with a confident win

On October 13, 2022, the Bell Centre will host a regular season NHL game in which local Montreal Canadiens will take on Toronto Maple Leafs. The game is scheduled to start at 02:00 (UTC+3).

Montreal is once again a sore sight to behold. The season before last, the Canadiens made it to the Stanley Cup finals, but now they are hopeless outsiders in the league. Last regular season they looked awful and were the first to lose their playoff chances. In the final game, the Red and Blues slammed the door loudly though, defeating Florida 10-2 on their home ice, but that result is unlikely to give them any momentum now. During the preseason, Martin St. Louis' charges have played eight test games in which they have suffered eight losses, which in itself speaks volumes about their prospects in the new championship.

Toronto is a team with a much more solid selection of hockey players that looks better every year in the regular season, but then come the playoffs. It will soon be two decades since the Maple Leafs have been able to get past the first round of the Stanley Cup, and sometimes they fly out comically, as they did the year before last at the hands of Montreal, and sometimes they perform real miracles but still fly out. That was the case last season when Sheldon Keefe's team nearly knocked out then-champion Tampa Bay, leading 3-2 in the series, but they still lost 3-4 in the end. With a major roster renewal, the Canadiens will once again try to accomplish the impossible.

Throughout the history of the NHL, teams have played 761 head-to-head encounters. The Canadiens have won 364 games, the Maple Leafs were stronger in 309 games and 88 games ended in a draw. The goal difference is also on the side of the Red and Blues, 2323-2120. In the last regular season the rivals met four times: two times Toronto players won 2-1 and 3-2, and twice it was the Montreal hockey players who were stronger, 5-2 and 4-2.

Montreal and Toronto approach the new season with very different levels of ambition. While the Canadiens are one of the weakest teams in the league, the Maple Leafs are ripe for great challenges, maybe even overripe. Martin St. Louis's team failed in the preseason, losing all eight games in a row, so they should not count on points in the opening game of the regular season eithe. Too strong opponent they have. As a result, we should bet on Toronto Handicap (-1.5) at odds of about 1.90.

Not only did Montreal lose consistently throughout the preseason, but they also scored very little. In just eight meetings, the Canadiens have only allowed 18 goals (2.25 per game average), which is very modest by NHL standards. Moreover, Marten St. Louis's team played twice against Toronto, giving up only one puck (0.50 average per game) in those games. The Maple Leafs have a new goaltending tandem of Murray-Samsonov in the offseason, for whom a healthy start to the regular season is important. Given this, the optimal option seems to be Montreal's Individual Total Under 2.5 pucks at odds close to 1.90.

Auston Matthews is the main star of the current Toronto. The Maple Leafs' offensive leader has progressed every year to notch 60 (!) goals in 73 games last season, becoming the most productive player in the entire league. That's a crazy number, which Alexander Ovechkin can only dream of nowadays. The 25-year-old sharpshooter is in great shape to start the current season, which was confirmed by his double-double in the last control game against Detroit, so we should look closer at the bet on Auston Matthews' goal with the odds about 1.75.

Our prediction: Handicap Toronto (-1.5) for 1.90 at Bet365.

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