Sweden vs Spain: La Roja are in big trouble

The Swedish men’s handball team has not beaten the Spaniards in an official match in over ten years, and bookmakers have a slight preference for La Roja in the Olympic quarter-finals. Can the Scandinavians surprise?

Sweden played in the 2012 Olympic final, but only Niclas Ekberg came to Tokyo from that team. The veteran star has only just recovered from injury, but at the Games, he has already helped his team immensely. With 15 goals, the Kiel right-wing is the third scorer of the Swedish squad, and Hampus Wanne took the lead over the group. Ultimately combinational edge play has become the team’s trademark, with quick breakaways being one of their greatest assets. Sweden share 2nd place with the French in terms of goals from the counterattack, but they score more from the flanks. As for the squad, Linus Persson and Mikael Appelgren are out due to injury. The latter is well replaced by Mikael Aggefors, while the main goalkeeper Andreas Palicka has not yet reached his peak.

The Swedes lacked just a little to be qualified for first place in the group. The team has claimed four victories in their five games but lost to Egypt and Denmark in extra points. Glenn Solberg’s charges faced the Danes in the final round and ended up with a 33:30 victory. What made the victory all the more valuable was that the Swedes picked up six two-minute penalties - their opponents had only two. The backline worked well, with the team scoring 12 goals from 9 metres on 22 attempts. Jonathan Carlsbogar and Felix Claar combined and generated nine long-range shots. Right-backs Lukas Sandell and Albin Lagergren accounted for 5 and 6 goal captures, respectively, while Hampus Wanne scored only twice.

Spain are one of the most experienced teams in the current tournament, but that could play a cruel trick on them now. The team’s roster is rapidly shrinking because of injuries, and the veterans are shouldering an even more significant burden. Aitor Arino and Daniel Dujshebaev were sidelined due to injuries before the start of the Games, and Joan Canellas dropped out shortly before the tournament. But that’s not all. The day before, left-back Viran Morros dropped out and was replaced by Miguel Sanchez-Migallon. Before that, he had played only four games for the national team, and now he suddenly became one of the leaders in terms of playing time. Unsurprisingly, the backline has suffered. Only the Argentines have been worse than La Roja in terms of making 9-meter field goals. So far, the Spaniards have been afloat thanks to quick breakaways. They lead the Olympics in goals scored on the counterattack.

However, they have won their last five group-stage matches, losing only to the French. In the final round, Jordi Ribera’s wards defeated the Argentine national team, 36:27. Already by the break, La Roja were leading with a difference of 5 goals. In general, the backline wasn’t too bad, but the linesmen and wingers provided some help. Aleix Gomes, with six goals, was the highest scorer on the team. Gonzalo Perez de Vargas did well, making 11 saves. That was good enough for the win.

Spain’s problems have worsened in recent times and they were masked in a match against a not very strong Argentine team so far. The Swedes beat the main favourites of the Olympics, not playing their trump card and picking up penalties. Andreas Palicka carried the team at the last World Cup and, if he gets up to speed, the goaltending factor will be key. The Spaniards have a poor backline all tournament, but the Swedes’ goaltending is excellent from long-range shots as 51% of their saves are the best. Hampus Wanne will probably be more visible than against the Danes, so there are plenty of arguments favoring Sweden. The following betting options look great:

• Handicap 1 (-2.5) for 3.26;
• Total Under 56.5 goals for 1.90;
• Sweden to qualify for 2.25.