Toronto vs Austin FC Prediction: Expect a cagey affair

It promises to be an interesting MLS encounter between two teams from different conferences as Toronto FC take on Austin FC on September 15, 2024. Both sides go into the matchup right in the thick of their playoff pushes with Toronto currently sitting 8th in the Eastern Conference and Austin 11th in the Western Conference. With mixed fortunes in the last five outings for both sides, this matchup looms large in the bigger scheme of things. Both teams have played against each other on two occasions, managing to win one apiece, with no drawn matches yet-something that sets up a dicey battle.

Toronto FC has had a pretty erratic season, amassing 10 wins, 3 draws, and 15 losses so far. Coming into this match, they stand a good chance of qualifying for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, even though they suffered a recent defeat, 3-1, to DC United. The form for Toronto in the last five matches reads three wins and two losses. In their last outing, Toronto utilized a 3-4-3 system but were unable to boss the game, considering they had 57% possession. The attack of the visitors created some good opportunities, while their defense let them down with three goals conceded. They have also shown a general tendency to play under low corner counts, having less than 10.5 corners in their last nine games.

Toronto FC will likely hold to their wing-based 3-4-3 formation heavy on fluidity and transition from back to front. Having three centre-backs should theoretically ensure some sort of defensive solidity, but the Reds have often been shaky at the back this season - particularly against teams who press high. They look to attack with pace down the flanks and through quick counter-attacks, although recent inefficiency in front of goal may temper that latter strength. The midfield will have much work to do in this game to make sure Austin doesn't rule the tempo of the match.

In the process, Austin FC has recorded 9 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, piling them up against a playoff picture in the Western Conference. They have also won three out of the last five matches and lost two. They travel to this game off a disappointing 1-0 home loss to Vancouver. Despite lining up in a 4-3-3, they failed to manage a single shot on target in that match which tells a lot about their attacking concerns. However, Austin has been decent at the back in recent matches as four of their last five matches have produced less than 2.5 goals.

Austin FC adopts a normal shape in 4-3-3 in order to get width, plus flexibility in transition. Their failure to hit the target on many occasions lately against Vancouver means they will surely be looking forward to being more precise in the final third. Much of Austin's midfield is important in retaining possession, but their success will come down to how well they manage Toronto's counter-attacks. Defensively, they've been pretty solid, at least in those matches finishing under 2.5 goals. If Austin can keep Toronto off their backs and not concede one early, the hosts will have a decent chance of coming away with at least a point.

Toronto and Austin FC have played twice in the annals of MLS, with each team managing to win a match, while none of those matches have ended in a draw. Their meetings have indeed been tight, with both teams capable of posing problems for one another, despite their positioning in different conferences. These matches really point to an unpredictable match outcome with neither at an advantage over the other from past matches. As this head-to-head does not have a draw in it, their coming clash would fall at an unpredictable moment and would be worth watching closely.

Toronto's defense has been shaky as they concede 45% of duels and big chances. However, Austin's inability to translate possession into meaningful chances-on-target shots in the last match-means individual brilliance or a defensive mistake could decide the result in this match.

Hopefully, that could be decisive for Toronto, who generally improved at home even if a 3-1 defeat last time out was the return.

Of late, Austin's games have been of the low-scoring variety, while Toronto's games have had fewer corners. Also, considering these traits, a low-scoring game with few set-pieces is likely.

• Home Win/Draw & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.87 Odds
• Both Teams to Score (No) @ 2.18 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.07 Odds