Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew Prediction: Columbus Crew won’t lose here

On September 19, 2024, Toronto FC hosts Columbus Crew in one of the crucial MLS Eastern Conference games at BMO Field. Toronto currently sits 8th with an erratic record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 15 losses in their quest to secure a playoff spot, while Columbus Crew, 3rd in the standings with 14 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, have been one of the more consistent teams this season. Coming into this match, Toronto will look to build momentum, buoyed by a recent 2-1 home win against Austin FC, whereas the stern examination that awaits them is Columbus, who have gone undefeated in their last 6 meetings with Toronto and drew 0-0 away to Cincinnati in their last outing.

Toronto enters this match in pretty reasonable form, having won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 games. In the last win, a good 2-1 win over Austin, both Jonathan Osorio and Deandre Kerr gave nice performances to find the back of the net. More importantly, Sean Johnson, the Toronto goalkeeper, was on hand to make sure his side remained in the game and made 6 crucial saves-five of which were inside the box. But despite all those defensive vulnerabilities, the fact that Toronto can graft out results at home will give them hope coming into this match.

Toronto FC have been deploying a 3-4-2-1 formation, highly flexible both in defense and attack. The three centre-backs give them the defensive solidity, while the two wing-backs push high up to support the attack. However, they struggled with possession in their last outing, having only 48%, but were resilient at the back as they won 79% of their defensive tackles. This is, however, reflected in only 3 shots on target and just 1 big chance created, a fair reflection of how this team so often struggles to break down defences. Jonathan Osorio and Deandre Kerr will again be key in the creation and finishing of chances. Toronto's reliance on their goalkeeper Sean Johnson to bail them out defensively will certainly be tested, especially against a potent Columbus side.

Success for Toronto will lie in defensive discipline and transitions that are quick. They will be deep-lying, trying to hit Columbus on the counter, using pace from Deandre Kerr and Osario's vision in phase one attack. They'll need to stay in shape while limiting Columbus' space in the middle of the park-most importantly, denying service to Cucho Hernandez.

Whereas Columbus Crew has been one of the best teams in the conference with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last five outings. In their last game, a goalless draw against Cincinnati, the Crew had possession and created more big chances, 2, yet they failed to convert. Cucho Hernandez was the most dangerous player; three shots on target, two big chances created, and three key passes. That ability to influence games in the final third makes him very important as Columbus will continue to rely on their balanced attacking and defensive setup.

Columbus Crew also comes into this game with a similar 3-4-2-1 setup, but they are usually more fluid in attack because they often dictate the pace of the game through good possession and transitional moments. They have quite an exciting creative force with Cucho Hernandez, Diego Rossi, and Darlington Nagbe, who link well to fashion many scoring opportunities. In their last game against Cincinnati, they enjoyed 50% possession and had created 2 big chances, albeit their finishing had let them down. Defensively, Columbus has been solid, having won 57% of the defending tackles and controlled the duels fairly well at 55%. With Toronto's penchant to rely on long balls at 42%, Columbus has fared well in defending crosses, and Toronto will look to press high and dominate possession while looking to exploit the gaps in Toronto's defense with Hernandez's creativity.

Columbus will also be possession-based, looking for midfield dominance and pulling Toronto's defense this way and that through wide areas. With players like Darlington Nagbe pulling the strings, the Crew will look to patiently build from the back, relying on Cucho Hernandez and Diego Rossi to find ways past Toronto's backline.

The head-to-head between Toronto FC and Columbus Crew has been pretty even, with 7 wins for each and 6 draws in their last 20 games. However, Columbus have had the upper hand in recent times, seeing as they now go into a 6-game unbeaten streak against Toronto. The last one back in July of 2024 saw Columbus thrash Toronto 4-0 at home, proving superior even then.

Toronto have conceded in each of the last 6 meetings against Columbus, which points to a constant problem in keeping the attack of Columbus at bay.

Indeed, most of their recent games have been quite disciplined, with under 4.5 cards shown in 5 of their last 6 meetings.

Another trend is that no corners have been witnessed in the last 8 matches of both teams since 6 of those matches had less than 10.5 corners.

With Toronto often relying on their defense and keeper, Columbus's better retention of the ball – 50% in their last, will more than likely see them control the flow of the game. They will have over 50% possession. Toronto has averaged fewer big chances, 1 in their last match, and only managed 3 shots on target against Austin. Columbus, on the back of some good defensive numbers, should be able to nullify Toronto's attack.

Both teams have also liked to be involved in low-scoring matches, with Toronto's last match seeing just 3 shots on target, and Columbus involved in a 0-0 draw last time out, so this should be a tight affair with under 2.5 goals high on the cards.

The better balance and attacking potency should therefore give Columbus Crew the edge, considering Toronto's recent form at home and their struggles against top-tier sides.

• Away Win/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.71 Odds
• Away Win/Draw & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.24 Odds
• Away Win 2-0 @ 12.00 Odds