St. Louis City SC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction: Don’t write off Sporting Kansas completely

St. Louis City SC will host Sporting Kansas City of the Western Conference on September 29, 2024, in a matchup that could be a defining moment in the season for either of these two teams. Both St. Louis City SC and KC have identical records with 6 wins, 13 draws, and 11 losses; separated by goal difference, they are precariously poised in their battle to rise above the playoff line. This will be a strongly weighted match because of the proximity in standings, and also due to the shared rivalry and recent form. A win here would give either side a huge boost in their late-season playoff push.

Both teams enter this match in a similar vein of form, with St. Louis City SC marginally better than Sporting Kansas City over the course of the last five matches. St Louis have picked up 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last five, including a morale boosting 2-1 away win over San Jose. Kansas City has a somewhat less positive trajectory, coming into this with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, having suffered a disappointing 2-0 home loss to Minnesota in the last round. While that does make them poor at home, their good away record keeps the contest tight. A recent head-to-head encounter ended all square at 1-1, which also points to another close affair.

St. Louis has been unpredictable, but they somehow manage to score goals in recent times-the recent trend for them has been to see goals galore in their matches. They have let in 13 goals in their last seven matches, but they've also opened first in their last five, which shows a great start, while the defensive resilience has left a lot to be desired.

They manage to play a pretty direct, pressing game - evident by their 53% long ball usage and tendency to cross into dangerous areas. However, they only possessed 44% against San Jose, so tend to give the ball up to the opposition, preferring to lean on their transitions and counter-attacks. They shape up in a strong 4-2-3-1, but their issues in defense are pretty apparent, having conceded in each of their last seven matches.

The key for St. Louis will be to maintain their high tempo and defensive focus. While they have managed to score regularly, they need to tighten up at the back, especially against Kansas City's more patient build-up play.

Considering this, St. Louis will most likely approach the game with a high-pressing strategy, trying to win the ball in dangerous areas and transition into attack as fast as possible. They will look to exploit Kansas City's vulnerable backline through overloads provided by the 4-2-3-1 and frequently attack them with direct balls, either via crosses or long balls. The midfield fight is going to be huge for St. Louis because Kansas City is a possession-based team, so if they cannot press effectively, the transition opportunities could easily be nullified.

While on the other hand, Kansas City are more conservative in their games, meaning out of the last five games they have been part of, only four have seen goals over 2.5, and this implies a more solid back, though less potent attack.

Peter Vermes' Sporting Kansas City is generally more patient, possession-oriented. Last week against Minnesota, they dominated possession 67% but failed to capitalize on their control-managing only two big chances before eventually succumbing to a 2-0 defeat. With the high possession numbers, there's little doubt that Kansas City likes to dominate the park, but recent issues in the final third have to be a concern for breaking down St. Louis' backline.

Kansas also prefers long balls at 71%, but they are not as reliant on crosses at 19% which would suggest that they like to play through the middle or use diagonal balls to stretch the opponent. They have been stronger on the back end as well as four of their last five have gone under 2.5 goals.

SKC will be possession-based, trying to control the tempo of the game and reduce St Louis' opportunities to counter. SKC also come in a 4-2-3-1, which means the midfield is going to be very contested. Kansas City's strength is retention of the ball and patient building, but they will need to be more clinical in the final third if they are to capitalize on any space left by St. Louis' often suspect defense.

They would likely only be focused on holding some sort of defensive stability and on limiting the number of set-piece opportunities that St. Louis get, because they do pose a threat with long balls and crosses into the box. Given the rate at which St. Louis has conceded goals, Kansas City's game plan would likely revolve around patient build-up play to draw their opposition out of position before striking.

The head-to-head history between St. Louis City SC and Sporting Kansas City is even, with a share of two wins and two draws each over their last six meetings. This even split has underlined the competitive nature of their clashes with neither side dominating over the other.

While records are just evened out, Kansas City has managed to not lose in any of their recent four games to St. Louis, which includes a couple of draws and two wins, giving Kansas the slightest psychologically advantageous position for this match.

Both teams have scored in the last six games between the teams, further cementing the notion that this will be another high-scoring, competitive contest. Over 2.5 goals have come in six of their last seven together, which suggests a trend for open, attacking football between these two.

This was the most recent match played in July 2024, which ended in a goalless 1-1 draw at Kansas City. Both teams were solid in defense, but Kansas had more possession and created better chances to keep the unbeaten run against St. Louis alive.

Both teams have consistently been involved in high-scoring games. In St Louis' last 10 matches, both teams have scored, while in most of Kansas City's recent matches, there is always some kind of back-and-forth contest. Between the defensive vulnerabilities and attacking possibility on show, a BTTS outcome does seem highly likely.

St. Louis' matches tend to go over 2.5 goals, their last seven fulfilling this criteria. Kansas City's solidity in defense has been a touch more apparent, but they too have been part of matches that see multiple goals when they play away. Chances of this match going over 2.5 goals are pretty high, especially given St. Louis' issues in keeping a clean sheet.

Kansas City is unbeaten in the last four matches against St. Louis, including the 1-1 outcome in their most recent meeting. The ability of the visitors to hold on to possession could therefore frustrate the home team, who are very direct in their play, relying on transitions. Slightly better tactical discipline and defensive strength could get them a point or even a narrow win.

• Over 3 Goals @ 1.66 Odds
• GG & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Away DNB @ 2.62 Odds