Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids Prediction: The Rapids are underrated

The 19th of September 2024 sees Sporting Kansas City, sitting 13th in the Western Conference, play host to Colorado Rapids, who currently sit third in the same Conference, in what may prove to be a defining match at either end of the scale, as two teams with different goals clash as the MLS season enters its final stretch. Kansas is trying to recover from an underwhelming campaign, whereas Colorado is trying to win a high playoff seed. Both teams use a 4-2-3-1 formation but come into this match with very different forms and expectations. Colorado will look to extend the impressive recent run, while Sporting KC will seek a response after a tough loss to Seattle.

It has been a turbulent season for Sporting Kansas, with 7 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses keeping them in 13th position. The last five matches expose some inconsistency between the teams, as 2W, 1D, and 2L are impossible to call good form. The 2-0 defeat at Seattle underlined all their struggles and insisted on chance creation, with no big chances created and just two shots on target despite a possession rate of 48%. Also, SKC are very disciplined lately, going under 4.5 cards in six straight matches. They also tend to have low corner counts, staying under 10.5 corners in five of their last six.

This season, Sporting KC has struggled both offensively and defensively, and the inability to create chances against Seattle was again telling. While the possession rate has been decent, inefficiency in using possession to actually create chances and big chances and shots on target is one of the reoccurring themes this season. Given their success in winning defensive tackles against Seattle, the key to Sporting's approach may lie in how well they can manage to tighten things up defensively and focus on a quick transition game. However, their low duel win percentage does suggest that they are likely to struggle physically against Colorado.

The most expected setup for Sporting Kansas would be the familiar shape of 4-2-3-1, though perhaps more conservative, with an accent on maintaining solidity at the back. Considering their struggles to create chances, they might well wish for a counter-attack setup in order to exploit the relatively weak defending in Colorado through duels and tackle success rates. They will need to be far more effective on possession, moving the ball into advanced positions more efficiently through the flanks since their crossing game is underwhelming-low 14% success rate against Seattle. Players such as Alan Pulido or Johnny Russell will have to step up and prove an attacking threat.

Colorado sits in 3rd place with 14 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. The Rapids seem to be on a good run of late; they have won four of their last five games. Lately, their 2-1 victory against Portland showed their attacking power in being one man down after the red card given to Darren Yapi and created five big chances. Jonathan Lewis and Rafael Navarro have contributed to such a goal-scoring rate, with Colorado seeing over 2.5 goals in most of their matches, with six of their last seven such an occurrence. The Rapids have often managed to dig out a result despite not performing on the defensive end, having conceded in their last four games.

Colorado Rapids enter this match with a better feeling of confidence as they have outperformed most teams in recent weeks. The Rapids usually show a lot of strength in direct attacks, usually maximizing their possession using big chances created. They like to open the field by making 45% long balls and 31% crosses to find spaces behind the opposition. The suspension absence of Darren Yapi might temper their press from the front, but they have had crucial players like Jonathan Lewis and Rafael Navarro who come up big in finding goals. Defensively, Colorado has been all over the place, with their tackle success rate falling as low as 46% in their last game. This perhaps might provide Kansas with some leeway to find gaps in the Rapids' backline.

Even without Darren Yapi, Colorado will maintain their aggressive attacking approach, particularly in searching for long balls and crosses to exploit openings. They will seek to press Kansas high up the pitch in an attempt to find the gaps left in KC's defense, which has not been impermeable all season. Their wide players-such as Jonathan Lewis-will be quite pivotal in delivering crosses into the box and breaking through Kansas' backline. Defensively, Colorado needs to be compact and avoid some of the sloppy defending that has led to some of the conceding of late, considering they will be without one of their key forwards.

Recent history somewhat balances out their matchups as Kansas has a slight edge in overall victories, in the 20 matches records read: Sporting Kansas City-6 wins, Colorado Rapids-5 wins-9 draws.

Colorado is unbeaten in the last three encounters between teams. Over the years, these matches have usually been short on goals, with under 2.5 goals occurring in 6 of their last 8 meetings.

The trending under 4.5 cards in 7 of their last 9 matchups has been the case. Another consistency is the low corner counts, with under 10.5 corners in 7 of the last 9 games.

The most recent being in July 2024, when Colorado won 2-1 at home. Lately, Colorado has found recent success, which was taken to their advantage against the normally competitive Kansas side in the last few matches.

Given that Colorado is in such fine fettle at the moment and also taking their recent head-to-head results into consideration, it goes without saying they will be considered favorites for this match. Not having lost to Kansas over their last three meetings, Colorado has recorded four wins out of its last five MLS games. As opposed to this, Sporting Kansas remains inconsistent so far and can ill afford to present Colorado with significant trouble given their offensive firepower.

Recent tendencies of both teams have shown to have low corners, with Kansas having under 10.5 corners in five of their last six, while their head-to-head history further supports this, with seven of the last nine meetings seeing under 10.5 corners.

Both sides have been in reasonable disciplinary form recently, with Kansas staying under 4.5 cards in six successive matches, and Colorado managing this in six of the last seven. Their head-to-head matches have also stayed under this barrier, suggesting a pretty clean game is likely.

This fixture between Sporting Kansas and Colorado Rapids pits a struggling side against one that is coming into the encounter in relatively strong form. For Kansas to cause an upset, they will need to sort out issues at both ends of the pitch. Colorado should have the firepower to get at least a point, despite their continued lax defending. This will probably turn out to be a tactical game of cat and mouse, where Colorado is dominant in terms of possession, while Kansas tries its luck on counter-attacks. All will depend on how well Kansas can keep Colorado's attacking impetus at bay and how Colorado keeps their cool without Yapi.

• Under 10 Corners @ 1.61 Odds
• Under 9.5 Corners @ 1.642 Odds
• Away Win/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals