Seattle Sounders vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction: Seattle are clear favorites

Seattle Sounders welcome San Jose Earthquakes to Lumen Field on September 19, 2024, in one of the most important matches of their MLS Western Conference campaign. The match pits two teams going in opposite directions, with Seattle Sounders holding onto 5th place with playoff qualification a feasible target, while their opponents, the San Jose Earthquakes, are struggling at the bottom in 14th place, already eliminated from postseason consideration. Seattle has been in good form of late, but they also have to face off against San Jose, which has grown somewhat accustomed to having the better of their recent meetings. This could spell Seattle cementing their playoff hopes or San Jose pulling the upset once more.

Seattle Sounders come into this fixture on the back of a 2-0 home win against Sporting Kansas City, which further showed both an attacking prowess and solidity in defense. This season, the Sounders have remained consistent with 13 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, which keep them comfortably within the playoff spots. Their recent form underlines this competitive streak to finish the season strong, with 3 wins in 5 games.

The Sounders lined up in a 4-2-3-1, very balanced between offense and defense. They can control the midfield with two deeper-lying midfielders and get attacking support from the wings with wingers while finishing with a center striker. The style their play has taken in the last match underlined possession of 52%, with directness incorporating long balls of 54% and crosses amounting to 48%. In the final third, they created big chances amounting to 5, showing their potentiality to carve open defenses.

Defensively, Seattle has been organized, with 60% of defending tackles and 57% of duels won, showing strong physical presence. Players like Jackson Ragen and Paul Rothrock contributed to both ends of the pitch, with the team keeping a clean sheet in their last outing.

On the contrary, San Jose Earthquakes have had a torrid season to date, losing 21 games from the 28 played so far, finding themselves especially in a terrible situation both up front and in the back. They come into this game off a 2-0 loss to Vancouver Whitecaps in which many weaknesses, especially in defense, were exposed. With only 5 wins this season, they are definitely the underdogs in this matchup.

San Jose's last outing in a 3-4-3 formation reflects their attempt to solidify the back while still trying to be competitive in attack. The back three is often stretched, however, and they've struggled with duels won at 47%, and defensive tackles won at 44%. Their offensive output has been limited with just 2 big chances created in their last outing and only 43% possession.

Their approach will most likely be to defend deep and try to exploit any gaps in Seattle's defense via counterattacks. However, the lack of keeping possession and creativity upfront is going to be their big tests. Players like Cristian Espinoza will be important in unlocking any kind of chances that San Jose may get.

Historically, this has been an even fixture, with Seattle winning 8 times and San Jose winning 7 times in 20 meetings. Of late, though, San Jose has had the better of it, going unbeaten in its last 4 against Seattle, a run that includes a 3-2 win earlier this season.

Seattle's strong points include game control and, in general, neutralizing any kind of opponent pressure with their well-settled setup, while San Jose has always tried to count on their fighting spirit in this matchup and has almost every time managed to surprise the Sounders with an early lead; in fact, the Earthquakes scored first in 4 out of the last 5 matches played between them. Moreover, 5 out of the last 7 matches between them have produced more than 2.5 goals on the scoreboard, which gives reason to believe that Sunday's match will feature an open and attacking game.

Seattle Sounders enter this match with the upper hand, on account of their far more balanced tactical and superior form. San Jose, despite their poor season, could be a trouble maker in isolated moments-such as counterattacks and set pieces. Seattle will seek an exposed San Jose backline and continue on with their push up the table to a strong playoff position.

With the historical record between these sides, along with Seattle's recent goal-scoring form, it should continue in that trend-six of their last eight matches have seen over 2.5 goals.

This has been the case in most of their recent outings. With both teams disciplined, less than 4.5 cards have been seen in the last 5 meetings, something which is likely to persist into this tie.

• Home Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.62 Odds
• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Correct Score 2-1 @ 8.50 Odds