San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC Prediction: Both defenses will concede

This fixture pits San Jose Earthquakes, currently 14th in the Western Conference, against 13th-placed St. Louis City SC. Further, both have had miserable seasons, with San Jose stuck to the bottom and St. Louis just a spot above them. Neither team has good form, but there is only a few matches left this season, with both sides going toe-to-toe for pride and a positive result. St. Louis have the historical edge, with three wins from three previous matches against San Jose, including 2-0 earlier in the season. This is an extremely important match for both clubs, though playoff qualification is now highly unlikely.

San Jose comes into this match after a hard-fought 2-2 draw against Seattle Sounders. Though away from home, they managed to score twice through Amahl Pellegrino and Paul Marie. At the back, though, they were far from solid, with only one save made, and two goals conceded. San Jose has struggled much of the season, and recent form over the last five matches (1W 1D 3L) continues to reflect the problems. In their last three matches, they have conceded an average of three goals to add pressure to the backline.

Against Seattle, key stats are 54% possession, but just three shots on target, and an alarming reliance on long balls to progress play - 57% in fact. Fitting with the physical tag, there were 13 fouls and three yellow cards, but they've not had control in either box. Recent form suggests high-scoring matches for them too, as 5 of their last 7 have gone over 2.5 goals. They do, however, tend to keep the game in check with regards to cards and corners - having under 4.5 cards in their last five, and under 10.5 corners in 6 of their last 8.

San Jose can be expected to lineup in their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation. Given recent reliance on long balls and a lower percentage of successful crosses-22%-they may look to use Pellegrino's pace and directness to exploit any defensive gaps in St Louis. In midfield, they probably want to hold onto possession-had 54% vs Seattle-but that needs to be more effective given how low their conversion of chances into goals has been. Defensively, the consistency, as well as the set-piece defending from San Jose, has been poor and will be very vulnerable against a team like St Louis, which does create chances.

St Louis comes into this match off of a 3-1 home defeat to Minnesota. Though they lost, they maintained 59% possession, created four big chances and managed eight shots on target. Defensive frailties have been an issue, though, as they conceded three goals and have now allowed a total of 12 goals over their last six matches. Their attack is strong, with them managing to open the score in 6/7 matches, while in their last nine matches, both teams have managed to score.

Saint Louis are aggressive in attack and equally vulnerable at the back, leading to high-scoring affairs. All of their last six matches have ended with over 2.5 goals, and they have been struggling to keep clean sheets. Strong in Duels and the defensive side of tackles, Saint Louis won 59% of their duels and 82% of the defending tackles against Minnesota.

Saint Louis likes to play on the front foot by using quick transitions and high presses. They should continue with their usual 4-3-3 or a slight variant of that, which can allow them to press high up the pitch. They also boast an exciting attack with players like Cedric Teuchert leading the line. Still, however, defense is a weak spot, especially when the team gets caught in transition-a scenario that played out in their recent 3-1 loss to Minnesota. The St. Louis team will be looking to win the midfield battle through possession-like 59% against Minnesota-and direct plays down the wings, where they are a bit more efficient with crosses at 35%.

Historically, St. Louis City SC has been dominant in this matchup since the team's inception into MLS, claiming all three meetings between the sides. San Jose hasn't typically been able to assert themselves in these matchups both offensively and defensively, failing to take a single win or even a draw against St. Louis so far.

With both teams in a lean form and considering their propensity for high-scoring matches, this will be a fun fixture and one that is likely to be full of goals. Both teams' defenses have been weak, and their attack-minded play styles may devolve into a wide-open affair. San Jose, while playing at home, will try to break their three-game winless streak against St. Louis, who will be keen to extend this head-to-head record.

Considering both teams have been struggling with clean sheets and how San Jose's recent matches have seen over 2.5 goals, the likelihood of at least three goals in this match is pretty high.

St. Louis have been involved in GG in nine consecutive matches, and with the frailties of San Jose at the back, it's almost certain both sides will find the net.

Goals and corners have often been on the low side, with San Jose's last 6/8 seeing under 10.5 corners, and so too did the last 4/5 St Louis games, so it is likely the trend will continue in this game.

• Total Over 3 Goals @ 1.723 Odds
• GG & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Correct Score 2-2 @ 11.00 Odds