San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas Prediction: Dallas are strong enough to avoid a defeat

The two teams face off in this important MLS Western Conference match, as San Jose Earthquakes go head-to-head with FC Dallas. It has been a torrid season for San Jose, who are in 14th place and with just five wins in 31 matches, having also endured a five-game winless streak lately. Dallas is in 10th place and trying to fight back for the contention of the playoffs. Dallas, coming into this tie with a more respectable record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 14 losses, will look upon this fixture as a critical chance to gain three points against a below-par Earthquakes side.

Both teams come into this match on the back of poor form, as San Jose lost 3-0 away to Montreal, while Dallas suffered a home defeat of 3-1 to Orlando. Judging by the current situation and recent form, both teams have much to play for, but Dallas will go into this tie with the upper hand due to their superior league position and head-to-head domination over San Jose.

San Jose's preferred formation has been the 4-2-3-1, but it hasn't provided them the stability they need in defense or enough potency in attack. In the recent loss against Montreal, they managed a single shot on target and showed clearly how they struggle to break down opposition defenses. Their reliance on long balls at 51% and crosses on 47 tries attempts to make up for the lacking creative build-up play through midfield. This direct approach may be something that could get them into trouble against a Dallas side that is very strong in duels and tackles, with their 60% success rate in defensive tackles indicating just how hard they are to break down.

Defensively, San Jose has been porous, conceding in their last five matches. While they have achieved 60% of the defensive tackles, they have conceded three or more goals in several games, such as the 3-0 loss to Montreal. This backline needs to tighten up, especially when dealing with Dallas forwards who can take advantage of their vulnerabilities on the counterattack.

Drawing one and losing four of their last five games underlines a team in crisis. They have struggled to find the back of the net, while leaking goals consistently, having been breached three times in their last game.

San Jose's form at home hasn't been much different from the away form this season, and it is reflected in the total lack of victories in the last five matches for a team that has not been able to use the familiar surroundings to their advantage.

However, inconsistent attacking output-just 1 shot on target in the last game-and fragile defense-5 goals conceded in 5 games-are the critical weaknesses. They often concede first, too, which puts them on the back foot early, something that has happened in 4 of their last 5 games.

Dallas also line up in a 4-2-3-1 and have had mixed results with that. In their last, they were outplayed in a 3-1 loss to Orlando, though they did manage to get six shots on target. Unlike San Jose, Dallas relies more on a balanced approach, with a slightly higher percentage of duels won at 55% and a lower crossing rate at 24%. They prefer to play through the wings, but can be effective in the situations of a long ball-63%.

Recently, Dallas' problems in defense came to light, as they conceded consecutively in three games, but their success rate of recovering the ball through duels and tackles will be important in hindering SJ's direct play. Dallas is more efficient in winning duels, and good defensive organization will again be highly important for them to stifle the attack of San Jose.

Dallas has also struggled lately with 3 losses, 1 draw, and 1 win in their last five games. They have conceded three goals in back-to-back matches but remain a more dangerous side going forward as they have scored in four of their last five matches.

Dallas has been decent on the road, but their head-to-head record, unbeaten in seven games with San Jose, is likely a source of confidence.

Dallas' defense is not impenetrable, but they do create the chances a lot better than San Jose does. A high rate of defensive duels and tackles won will probably make them contain the direct approach of San Jose.

The head-to-head between San Jose Earthquakes and FC Dallas is slightly poised in favor of Dallas. In the last 20 matches, Dallas has managed to win 5 times, San Jose 4, while 11 matches have ended in draws, further displaying how close this fixture normally is. Recent matchup scenarios have been dominated by Dallas, with them being unbeaten in the last 7 matches against the Earthquakes, proving this team's prowess in this pairing.

Speaking of goals, it is often the case that in these fixtures between the two teams, the net gets found by both sides. Nine consecutive meetings have seen both teams score, and their clashes do tend to be open and end-to-end. Though competitive, they have stayed under 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 7 matches, showing there has been balance between these two teams, mostly low-scoring.

Indeed, in February 2024, Dallas won 2-1 at home, as in the last few years, Dallas has been comfortable against San Jose. It's normally San Jose who begins quite brightly on these occasions and has gone ahead on opening goals in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head encounters, but they are unable to hold onto their leads due to defensive discrepancies. Also, corners come at a premium in their tete-a-tetes, with fewer than 10.5 corners in 5 of the last 6 matches- the surest indicant of scrappy, midfield-dominated battles.

Taking everything into consideration-from recent form for both teams to tactical setups and head-to-head records-the tie is Dallas's to win. Their attacking struggles, mixed with defensive frailties, really make them vulnerable, while Dallas themselves, despite their recent losses, showed that they are capable of scoring goals and defending better than San Jose.

Considering the teams' poor form and the fact that Dallas is unbeaten in seven matches against San Jose, this will probably be a match that San Jose is prevented from winning by Dallas.

Both teams have been in games with more than 2.5 goals - San Jose in 4 of their last 5, Dallas in 5 of their last 6. A scoreline between 2 and 4 is a safe prediction.

With both sides' recent struggles at the back, San Jose conceding in all of their last five, Dallas in their last three, it is fairly likely both will find the net.

• Away Over 1 Goal @ 1.679 Odds
• GG (Yes) + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.69 Odds
• Away DNB @ 2.00 Odds