Portland Timbers vs Austin FC Prediction: Portland are stronger at home

The Portland Timbers welcome Austin FC in this high-stakes MLS Western Conference match on October 3rd, 2024. Portland currently sit 9th but will be looking to secure a playoff place, while Austin are 11th and nowhere near abandoning their run of poor form. Both teams have the pressure of securing a good result, but Portland seems to be bearing up slightly better lately compared to winless Austin. This will be a very crucial match for the sides that are jockeying for position in the run-up to postseason competition with only a handful of regular season matches left.

Portland Timbers come into the game in 9th place, with 12 wins and 9 draws against 10 losses. They have been consistent of late, having lost none of their last three games. Their recent away result was a 1-1 draw against Vancouver. Portland has a reputation to be resilient at home, as they have scored consistently, at times with some defensive frailties. They have been part of high-scoring games quite frequently over their last 10 matches, with 8 of those finishing with over 2.5 goals. Portland, though, has struggled to keep clean sheets as they have conceded first in 5 of their last 7 games.

Portland Timbers often use a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on a balanced philosophy between offense and defense. They heavily utilize wing play and crosses but also tend to be very cautious with possession, as evident in the 47% possession against Vancouver in a draw. Their emphases are on counterattacks, exploiting wide areas with long balls-70% success rate. However, they can also become exposed behind, conceding goals despite securing a reasonable amount of duels and tackles at the rear.

Meanwhile, Austin FC has been on a rotten patch of form. Austin FC lies in 11th place with 9 wins, 9 draws, and 13 losses without a win in their last five games-2 draws, 3 losses. The only positivity going into Austin's match against Dallas is the fact that Austin was able to record a 2-2 home draw against Salt Lake last week, despite still facing issues in defense with multiple goals conceded in five straight matches. Despite most promising attacks, Austin has failed to convert such chances into victories that have contributed to their disappointing form.

With the new tactical formation, Austin FC prefer to use a 5-3-2 setup for a more solid defensive shape. While this may have made them appear compact at the back, the defensive concerns are not resolved with this kind of shape, having conceded 5 goals in the last 3 games. The style of play is more direct, with the use of long balls and transitions, though at a much lower rate of success in terms of duels. Defensive issues for Austin have meant that they have conceded first in 4 of their last 5 games, especially when the pressure is on them.

In 8 matches played, Portland dominated the head-to-head against Austin, coming out on top 5 times. Austin has won only 2, and there was a draw.

Portland is unbeaten in the last 6 matches against Austin-a manifestation of how consistent they have been in this fixture.

Portland has also managed to score first in all those 6 unbeaten matches-underlining their ability to take early control of the game.

Against that, the first half has been won by Portland in 5 of the last 6 meetings, further cementing their early-game superiority.

Austin have conceded in each of their last 8 meetings with Portland, which indicates defensive problems when this team plays against the Timbers. Still, Austin did manage to win 2 head-to-head clashes, showing they can be dangerous once the right conditions are found.

Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams, making these games usually one for the neutrals.

Their last head-to-head encounter was back in May 2024, and Portland came away with a convincing 2-0 victory.

Such form puts Portland one step ahead, as it only suffered 1 loss, bringing home 2 wins with 2 draws in the last 5 games, while Austin has never won any of their last 5 games. That will give Portland an edge, both psychologically and in performance, going into the fixture.

That would further tilt the balance in Portland's favor, who have always been strong at home and unbeaten in six meetings with Austin. Austin has been poor on the road this season, often conceding multiple goals and failing to assert their type of game.

Austin's 5-3-2 formation does tend to invite pressure, and that might play into Portland's hands. The Timbers do work wide, and with quick counters, into space that may be behind the wingbacks of Austin. Considering Austin struggles with crosses coming into the box and also in duels, Portland can dominate midfield and wide areas for numerous goal-scoring opportunities.

Portland have the psychological advantage of having defeated them 2-0 on the road in May 2024 and remaining undefeated in 6 straight head-to-head encounters. Austin not winning for a month now means any early goal conceded might lead to some doubt in their ranks.

With Portland's tendency to feature in high-scoring games lately-eight out of the last ten featuring over 2.5 goals-the potential for goals is there. The defensive vulnerabilities of Austin, their tendency to concede early, coupled with Portland's home advantage, might make this game a multiline of goals.

• Home Win @ 1.61 Odds
• Home/Draw & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Odds
• Correct Score 2-1 @ 8.50 Odds