Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Prediction: Eastern Conference Rivals Look to End Slumps in High-Stakes Showdown

One of the most interesting matches of the MLS Eastern Conference will take place when Philadelphia Union hosts FC Cincinnati on October 20, 2024, at Subaru Park. Both teams come into this match with a run of average performances and are looking forward to gaining some crucial points ahead of the end of the regular season. Philadelphia also rests in 11th place with 9 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses as they fight for a late-season push, while FC Cincinnati presently rests in 3rd place with 17 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, looking to stabilize after a dip in form that saw them winless in their last four outings. This will be an intense game, full of drama and probably a few goals, as playoff implications go on the line for both clubs.

While Philadelphia Union have struggled for consistency all season, recent results suggest an ability to score, particularly at home. Philadelphia Union's form in the last five games reads two wins, one draw, and two losses. The most recent, a 3-2 away defeat to Columbus, showed both defensive frailties and offensive potential with the team able to create two big chances despite holding only 30% possession.

Philadelphia Union should line up in their customary 4-3-1-2 system, one that greatly relies on quick transition of the ball and pressings. As can be read from the low stats of possession, the Union often avoid fuss in the midfield with long passes-53% in the last match-and crosses-38% accurate-to utilize the forward couple to seek goals. On the defensive side, Philadelphia have struggled to win duels and successfully tackle, winning only 40% of their tackles, which is an area they need to attend to if they are going to contain Cincinnati's dangerous attacking trio.

Meanwhile, FC Cincinnati-earlier a commanding force near the top of the table-fell with three consecutive losses, most recently a 3-1 defeat at home against Orlando. While Cincinnati maintained 52% possession and managed six shots on target in that match, the team's defensive vulnerabilities have been on show, conceding five goals in their last five matches. Both teams will look to end their respective winless streaks in what is shaping up to be a critical battle for momentum.

Typically, Cincinnati lines up in a 3-4-1-2, using wingbacks to stretch the field and dictate play from wide areas. Their preference for long balls at 60% suggests a very direct approach-usually in an attempt to get the ball as fast as possible from defense to offense. With a crossing success of just 29% and a recent defensive record that showcases three losses in a row, Cincinnati needs to firm up in the back. They've won a considerable amount of their defensive duels, 68%, which would hint that the team might be capable of withstanding pressure; still, they've been conceding first in four of their last five games, and that should play an important role in this game.

The H2H between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati has been close to even, with Philadelphia coming on top eight times, six wins against them by Cincinnati, and four matches that ended in draws. Their last encounter with each other was this August 2024 during the Leagues Cup, wherein Philadelphia won 4-2 in an away game. Indeed, both sides have shown a penchant for high-scoring games in this fixture, with over 2.5 goals hit in four of the last five meetings and each of the last four seeing both sides find the target. Philadelphia's defensive vulnerabilities are compounded by failing to keep a clean sheet in their last seven head-to-head clashes with Cincinnati.

Philadelphia has become so vulnerable, defensively, in the last five matches, conceding three goals in three straight matches. They have failed to dictate the pace of the game and control the possession, resorting mostly to long balls and set-pieces. Though they have scored regularly-5 out of 7 games in which they scored first-, they just cannot hold onto the lead in some crucial matches to get all three points. Strong set-piece play and the ability to score with less possession makes them a potentially dangerous opponent, especially at home.

Cincinnati have been quite impressive all season, with their form worsening lately. Dominating possession of the ball, while their tackling statistics were quite respectable at 68% success rate, they have been caught out defensively, particularly when teams press them high. The inability of Cincinnati to hold leads has seen it concede first in four of its last five matches, thus always had to rally from behind and testing its attack to secure a win. That attack, though still productive, has lacked that clinical edge needed to offset the defensive issues. This being said, Cincinnati will feel confident of finding the net at least once in this match, given Philadelphia's defense has been equally vulnerable.

Both teams come into this match with over 2.5 goals scored in five of their last six games, with both seeing "GG" regularly. Philadelphia has seen both teams score in 5/6 of its last games, while Cincinnati's last five matches have all ended with both teams scoring. With attacking tendencies and vulnerable defenses on both sides, this one should be a high-scoring affair. Moreover, both teams have gotten used to late goals, adding drama at the end of the match.

• Over 3 Goals @ 1.937 Odds
• Away Scores First @ 2.21 Odds
• Over 9 Corners @ 1.80 Odds