Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United Prediction: Philadelphia are favorites

The Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United clash on September 28, 2024, in what appears to be a big MLS match that holds a lot of playoff implications for both teams. Both are having somewhat mediocre seasons thus far-Philadelphia is sitting 9th in the Eastern Conference, while Atlanta is farther back in 11th place. With the season drawing closer to its end, both will see this match as a potential turning point to secure a late push for a playoff spot.

Philadelphia comes into this game following a dominating 4-0 win over D.C. United with some real confidence in their attacks. Atlanta United, on the other hand, last played a 2-2 draw against the New York Red Bulls, which exposed some weaknesses in their defense while showing them to be a resilient outfit. For historical context, the head-to-head series between the two sides has been rather tight, which should add extra spice to this upcoming contest.

Philadelphia has seen a great moment of brilliance in recent weeks, dominant performances such as against D.C. United, where they took full control of the game. The Union, with 9 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses this season, has been inconsistent but is still in contention for a playoff berth. Their attacking options look in fine form as multiple goals have been coming from key forwards, while defensive strength is helped along by a good tactical approach.

Philadelphia performed well in their last game; tactically, they looked very organized in a 4-3-1-2 setup. They enjoyed 50% possession of the ball, creating seven big chances that materialized into four goals. Efficiency at winning duels and defensive tackles came at a decent 57% and 59%, respectively, indicating that there exists a well-organized team that does not face major problems while switching between offensive and defensive phases. The team opened the scoring in four of their last five games, meaning that they are strong starters and could immediately put pressure on the Atlanta defense.

It is in those sorts of number attacks, with a pretty solid base in defense, where recent success for Philadelphia Union has lain. The 4-3-1-2 has flexibility for a midfield that can push forward to support the attackers and, at the same time, has been able to produce a particularly disciplined backline. This side has managed to become dynamic with effective utilization of crosses, long balls, set-piece opportunities, and open play. Pressing high early on, they will most definitely look to capitalize on some of the defensive uncertainty and its proclivity for conceding first by Atlanta.

Meanwhile, Atlanta United have been a bit more inconsistent, not finding form in the last five matches. With one win and two draws in that span, they find themselves outside of the playoff picture. The defensive tendencies-being forced to concede three or more goals in recent matches-are a huge concern as they will go up against Philadelphia. But Atlanta has proved not an easy opponent for Philadelphia this season, as their last head-to-head clash finished in April 2024 with a result of 2-2.

Lining up in a 5-3-2 in their last outing, Atlanta United fought back for a 2-2 draw with much grit, considering they only had 37% of possession. How they can only create one shot on target in that match is concerning, but oftentimes, their defense this season has been the unit to keep them competitive, with a 71% tackle success rate. The struggles lately of Atlanta, not being able to hold leads, conceding first in four of the last five, might be their undoing against a very aggressive Philadelphia team.

Meanwhile, Atlanta have relied more on a conservative 5-3-2 shape in the campaign so far, focusing on compactness in defense and counter-attacks. Their strong point has been their ability to defend deep and win tackles effectively. However, this team has had a hard time keeping possession and creating chances, which could easily see them sit back, try to take in some pressure, and try their luck on the break. But Atlanta does need to be more clinical in the final third if they are going to compete with Philadelphia's aggressive style.

The historical record between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United has been closely contested; Atlanta held the slight edge. In the 16 previous meetings, Atlanta won 6 times, Philadelphia won 5 times, and 5 matches finished as draws. In this rivalry, there have been many close-fought encounters, not much dominance from either side.

Most notably, their last meeting in April 2024 ended in a 2-2 draw at Atlanta's home ground-a game that put into context what head-to-head matches between the teams have been like. Opening the scoring for Atlanta, the visitors twice came from behind to level the match and eventually forced a draw despite being on foreign turf.

A few trends have evolved from these meetings. For instance, Philadelphia has not managed to keep a clean sheet against Atlanta in their last three meetings. The games between these two teams have also tended to produce over 4.5 cards in recent times, as five of the last meetings between them have averaged over 4.5 cards shown. That will suggest that a physical, hard-fought contest can be expected whenever these two teams face up against each other.

Philadelphia Union comes into this fixture as favorites, with form and attacking impetus setting them up for success. Atlanta United, even though a resilient side, might lack the much-needed firepower or defensive solidity to see off the pressure from an assured Philadelphia team. This should be a goal-filled fixture, but while Atlanta might find the net once, Philadelphia's cohesive approach, along with home-field advantage, should see them through with a vital three points.

Given that Philadelphia has started games pretty well, and Atlanta has conceded in the opening minutes of games, the likelihood of the home team being first to find the back of the net is very high. Confidence will be high with Philadelphia after a 4-0 victory to give them the early upper hand.

Both sides are a bit vulnerable on defense, and considering Atlanta lets in more than one goal often enough, this might make a moderately scored match. Philadelphia's firepower should produce plentiful opportunities, whereas Atlanta can also find the net; over 2.5 goals are likely.

• Home Win @ 1.753 Odds
• Home to Score First @ 1.6 Odds
• Correct Score 3:1 @ 12.00 Odds