New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Prediction: A possible stalemate in the derby

One of the most awaited fixtures in the MLS calendar is the Hudson River Derby between New York Red Bulls and New York City FC, not only because of the rivalry between both teams but also because of what it means in the race to playoff positions in the Eastern Conference. This is set for September 29, 2024, and thus carries considerable importance for both clubs in light of the playoffs seeding positions. The Red Bulls are lying in 4th place and have gotten themselves into a poor run of form, desperately in search of their first win in seven matches. NYCFC also found themselves in a similar kind of predicament, laying in 7th place without a victory in their last six games. Coming into the game on winless streaks, this may be a defining match between two teams whose fates in the postseason hang in the balance.

The Red Bulls go into this derby in 4th place with 10 wins, 14 draws, and 6 losses, but recent form has been far from encouraging. They are on a five-match winless run, having drawn three and lost two in that period. They managed a 2-2 home draw against Atlanta United in their last outing. But with their dominance in ball possession and creating seven big chances, they failed to win, which shows the inability to convert their chances into positive game outcomes.

The Red Bulls are inclined to an aggressive, high-pressing physical style of play in their 4-4-2 setup, where the main aim is trying to force turnovers high up the pitch. Though New York created a good amount of chances in their last outing, having 7 big chances, it's their conversion rate that has been a problem in recent matches. Recent games have shown some defensive fragility; they conceded in six straight matches, many times allowing the opposition to strike first.

Tactically, they will be more concerned with being tight at the back while still pressing to disrupt NYCFC's buildup. However, their habit of letting in early goals could force them into a more aggressive approach as they chase the match in case they fall behind.

NYCFC sit in 7th place with a record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses. Much like the Red Bulls, they are without a win in their last five, drawing three and losing two. Their last match was at home to Inter Miami, where, although they struggled to keep possession or create any meaningful chances, they did manage an on-road 1-1 draw.

NYCFC are likely to revert to their usual 4-2-3-1 in this match, with the game control from the midfield and organized defending being their primary playing priorities. Having dominated possession well, NYCFC, however, had troubles in front of the goal, creating just 2 big chances and 4 shots on target in their last game. Their backline, though, has been strong, with 79% tackle wins against Inter Miami, indicative of the fact that the NYCFC players can hold good under pressure.

With that, one should expect NYCFC to counter-attack, utilizing the space available at the top with the Red Bulls' high-pressure game. Based on their tight, cagey history with the Red Bulls, the visitors will most likely adopt a deep-defending strategy before looking to pounce on whatever limited opportunities might come their way.

Head-to-head, Red Bulls are slight favorites, having won 9 matches against NYCFC's 7, with 4 matches ending all square. The last meeting between the two saw NYCFC take a 2-1 home win earlier this year. Of note, these derbies tend to be tight, with under 2.5 goals coming in 5 of the last 6 and under 10.5 corners in 7 of 9.

Neither team is in the best of form, so a tight cagey affair can be expected. Given the recent records of goal conceding and subsequent draws recorded by both teams, a 1-1 scoreline does seem plausible. A lack of efficiency in converting chances by the Red Bulls and a solid NYCFC rearguard will likely prevent either from running away with the match.

Most Hudson River Derbies are typically low-scoring, and with the way things have gone for both teams in finding the net on a consistent basis, it's likely to continue that trend. Both managers will be cautious, especially considering the importance of the game, with fewer than three goals on the board.

After all, both teams have shown such tendency to concede in their recent games despite their struggles to score. In this match, with both teams desperate for results, it is likely that each team will find the back of the net once but without necessarily breaking the deadlock.

• Under 3 Goals @ 1.72 Odds
• GG & Under 2.5 Goals @ 6.60 Odds
• Correct Score 1:1 @ 7.00 Odds